Energy, according to Confindustria, a 110 billion euro sting is on the way
The 110 billion euro energy shock, “unsustainable” for Italian companies, and record inflation, bring down the prospects for the economy, with growth slowing in 2022 and zero in 2023. This is the scenario outlined by the Center Education Confindustria in the autumn forecast report. An alarm raised to the government of Giorgia Meloni that will come. With the rush of gas prices, the energy costs of Italian companies are expected to increase by 110 billion euros on average in 2022, for the total economy, compared to pre-pandemic values. According to the CSC, “the incidence of energy costs on the total rises from 4.6% to 9.8%, unsustainable levels, which correspond, despite a heterogeneous increase in sales prices for sectors, a profound reduction in company margins. “.
Nello basic scenariothat is the one in which the Russia does not withdraw from the occupied Ukrainian territories and no gas rationing is envisaged, the CSC foresees an annual increase of 3.4%, already more than acquired in the middle of the year, which corresponds to 1.5 percentage points more ‘compared to the scenario outlined in April. However, zero growth is estimated in 2023 with a significant downward revision compared to the April scenario (-1.6 points), which leads to stagnation on average for the year. Business investments are also losing momentum, especially those in the construction sector which have provided the largest contribution so far, also thanks to the significant boost from building bonuses.
According to the experts from Confindustriainstead, thefinal effect for theItalian economy in the event that Russia completely blocks the supply of gas and the price were to skyrocket, it would be a lower annual GDP growth of 0.4% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023, with a cumulative impact equal to -1.5% in the two-year period, which would slow down the labor market with 294 thousand fewer employees in the two-year period. The CSC estimates that there would be a shortage of gas supply in Italy equal to about 7% of demand, with significant impacts on activities and added value, especially in the industrial sector. On the contrary, if it were possible to impose a ceiling of 100 euros on the price of gas, the GDP would gain 1.6% in the two-year period and employment would grow by 308 thousand units in the same period. The broad upward revision of growth in 2022 is explained, according to the Csc, by the good performance of the Italian economy up to the middle of the year, especially the second quarter, when the product increased much above expectations (+ 1.1%).
There growth acquired of Italian GDP for 2022, or what would occur if the next quarters of the year recorded zero dynamics, it is + 3.6%. At the end of the first quarter it was + 2.8%, while the statistical drag from the end of 2021 was + 2.6%. The impact on the GDPalthough delayed by several quarters, it will begin to materialize before the end of 2022. According to the forecasts of the industrialists, “the third quarter will record a slowdown, even physiological after the surprising second, while the product will fall between the fourth quarter of 2022 (-0.6%) and the first of 2023 (-0.3%). On the one hand, in fact, the thrust linked to the gap to be filled with respect to the pre-pandemic, now closed, has been exhausted. , in the third and fourth quarter of 2022 the negative effects of the increase in the prices of energy products will fully manifest themselves “.
For ConfindustriaL’inflation will remain at “record” levels in 2022 and then fall in 2023. According to the forecasts of the CSC, on average, it will settle at + 7.5% (from + 1.9% in 2021), with an upward revision of +1.4 points compared to the April scenario. In 2023, it is expected to decline, but still high, at + 4.5% on average, due to the gradual exhaustion of the impact of the increase in oil and natural gas prices on the change in energy consumer prices (calculated over 12 months) . However, this is an upward revision of +2.5 points compared to April. The impact on consumption is inevitable, which at the end of 2023 should remain 3% below the levels of 2019.
There expense of the families Italian companies should grow by 3.1% this year (but below the acquisition in the second quarter, which is + 3.3%), after the rebound of + 5.2% in 2021, and then remain substantially flat ( -0.1%) in 2023. According to experts from Confindustria“families remain very cautious in spending decisions and extra savings will not be sufficient to finance expenses even in the last months of 2022 and 2023, partly because everything cannot be spent immediately, partly because it is eroded by inflation (about 13 billion), partly because it is concentrated among the wealthiest families. a significant weakening of consumption is expected, which is then expected to remain substantially flat in 2023 (-0.1%) “.
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