Gloomy prognosis for the Russian armed forces: Vladimir Putin's material battle in the Ukraine war is gradually taking revenge. The latest losses show this.
Moscow – The Russian army is struggling. While Russia is steadily increasing combat vehicles of the BMP type Ukraine war According to recent estimates, the Russian defense industry will have difficulty ensuring sufficient supplies. A majority of the vehicles still in storage are either rusted or broken.
Loss for Russia: Putin could run out of combat vehicles by 2026
In total, the number of BMP armored personnel carriers destroyed or damaged amounted to a dozen in a single day (as of Monday, January 8). The English magazine calculates that this would correspond to a loss of at least 300 BMP vehicles every month Forbes and uses figures from analyst Andrew Perpetua. In the previous years, 2022 and 2023, Russia is said to have lost an average of around 80 BMP-type infantry fighting vehicles per month.
Analysts also confirmed loudly Forbes, that the Ukrainians have already destroyed about half (2000) of the BMP vehicles used on the battlefield since the beginning of the war. Ten thousand BMP infantry fighting vehicles were produced in total. Although Russia is said to still have 3,000 of the combat vehicles in stock, more than 700 are apparently broken or no longer operational. On X The account “high_marsed” published satellite images showing the condition of the BMPs in need of restoration. The information has not yet been independently verified.
Sharp decline in Putin's armored personnel carriers by 2026 – Russia boosts weapons production
If Russia cannot expand production enormously, the number of war-capable BMP vehicles could decline sharply from 2026, argue the experts at Forbes. So far, the Russian tank factory “Kurganmashzavodtion” has only been able to produce a maximum of around 400 BMP-3 vehicles per year.
In fact, Russia is trying to boost its weapons production despite Western sanctions, but is primarily concentrating on rockets, cruise missiles and drones. On the Ukrainian side, Vladyslav Vlasyuk, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky in charge of sanctions against Russia, confirmed that “Russian arms production is increasing in many sectors.” Since the start of the war of aggression, Putin has been able to significantly increase production, reports Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ). Current sanctions would inhibit Russian arms production, but would have an increasingly weaker effect.
Heavy Russian losses in the Ukrainian War at the Battle of Avdiivka
However, the question remains whether Russia can equip the army well enough in time before all the soldiers and weapons are burned through. “The Russian losses in people and material are enormous,” Bundeswehr Major General Christian Freuding emphasized to the Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) End of December 2023. “We assume that they will have losses of battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in the high four-digit range.”
The battle in Avdiivka in particular has been costly for the Russian armed forces so far. According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian tank losses have skyrocketed after Russia launched a massive attack near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast (eastern Ukraine) on October 10, 2022.
According to the Colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Stupun, has Vladimir Putins army has lost 400 armored vehicles on the Eastern Front since October 10 in fighting near Avdiivka and Mariinka in the Donetsk region. For comparison: the average loss rate is loud euromaidanpress at 245 Russian tanks per month.
The war in Ukraine continues to pose major challenges for both troops
Ukraine has so far recorded major military successes in the first year of the war – such as the partial liberation of the southern Kherson region from Russian occupation. However, including the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in violation of international law in 2014, around a fifth of Ukrainian territory is still occupied by Russian troops.
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