Climate change threatens the Spanish tourism model | La Verdad

Less rain, higher temperatures on the thermometers and fewer tourists? “Climate change is a challenge for the Spanish tourism sector,” concludes the latest BBVA Research report made public on Friday. Specifically, it is a challenge for the Mediterranean area of ​​the Iberian Peninsula. “The traditional appeal of these destinations may diminish,” warn researchers from the research centre of the Spanish entity.

A direct blow to one of the driving forces of the Spanish economy. In 2023, tourism contributed 187 billion euros to the national accounts and accounted for 12.8% of GDP. Figures that are expected to be far exceeded in 2024 with the arrival of more than 100 million travelers from other countries. “The impact will be global, but in Spain it will be even greater,” warn the economists at BBVA Research. However, “the net decrease will be relatively small,” they explain. “The big differences are at the regional level,” they add.

The average temperature increase by the end of the century compared to the pre-industrial era is already heading towards 3 degrees, according to the latest reports from the United Nations. In this scenario, the net drop in tourism in Spain would be 0.6%. In the most pessimistic scenario, with an increase of 4.8 degrees in 2100, the decrease would reach 7% compared to the period 2024-2030.

Tourists to the north

According to the latest reports from the IPCC – the United Nations’ panel of climate experts – the climate crisis has its epicentre in the Mediterranean. “This area is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet,” say UN researchers. This is reflected in hot days, stifling nights and the relentless advance of Mediterranean waters, but also in the number of travellers flocking to the beaches of eastern Spain.

According to Eurostat data, tourists are beginning to see the north as a ‘fresher’ alternative to the Mediterranean. The portals indicate that this phenomenon responds to a change in behaviour when it comes to travelling, especially among national tourists, who are the ones who are contributing the most to improving the records of the three Cantabrian communities by having added more than two million nights of accommodation compared to before confinement – a growth of close to three million in total.

Mild temperatures and abundant water will increase the weight of tourism in the Cantabrian communities by 5.8% on average, with Asturias and Pontevedra being the main beneficiaries. The worst is for the Balearic Islands, which could lose, according to BBVA Research, up to 60% of its tourists in summer.

The average net impact in the Mediterranean provinces is -10%, ranging from -1.7% in Barcelona to -27.4% in the Balearic Islands in the 2090s compared to 2024-2030.

Spring, the great beneficiary

The study also highlights the potential for deseasonalisation of tourism, with spring becoming a particularly favourable season for travel.

As extreme summer heat discourages travel to traditional destinations, spring could become a more popular season for tourists. Moreover, this shift could help relieve pressure on summer tourism, provided it is supported by the necessary policy measures and infrastructure investment.

“To mitigate the adverse effects, the tourism industry must adapt by promoting travel outside the peak season, developing sustainable infrastructure and diversifying tourist attractions beyond beach tourism to ensure the long-term resilience of the Spanish tourism sector,” say BBVA Research economists.