Two weeks before Christmas, Covid data is growing in Italy and the circulation of the flu is also increasing with both viruses poised to mark a new peak in cases towards the end of December. A picture which, in a moment of meeting and sociality like that of the holidays, worries the experts quite a bit. Which they have been launching for days now appeals inviting citizens to return to prudence, to some physical distance and, above all, to vaccination to ‘save’ the upcoming holidays.
Covid data
On the Covid front, in the week 30 November – 6 December, 59,498 new positive cases were recorded in Italy, with a variation of +14% compared to the previous week (52,177), and 307 deaths, 5.5% more than the week previous (291). This is what emerges from the weekly bulletin of the Ministry of Health. 284,806 swabs were carried out, an increase of 2.5% compared to the previous week (277,938). The positivity rate rises to 20.9%, with a +2.1%.
In Italy, “at a national level, occupied Covid beds are growing significantly, but at lower values than last year. In the last 30 days we have gone from around 3,600 occupied ordinary beds to 6,668; while for intensive care from 113 to 219. There is a rise in the data but with doubling times and always on low numbers, a sort of ‘shoulder’ of the virus but the numbers tell us that the system is holding up. Christmas? The peak of hospitalizations in December 2022, recorded on December 12, it was 9,764 ordinary beds occupied; this year we should remain below 9,000, in any case below the peak of December 2022”. Thus at Adnkronos Salute Antonello Maruotti, professor of Statistics at Lumsa University and co-founder of StatGroup19, an inter-academic group for statistical studies on the Covid 19 pandemic, took stock of the situation yesterday.
“Similarly, for intensive care, the peak, again reached on 12 December 2022, was 347; this year we should see it around 300, I hope more around 250 – he adds – Finally, again to make a comparison with what happened last year, on 10 November 2022 there were 203 intensive care units occupied (end of the decline observed in that period), a month later there were 347 (peak reached 4 weeks after the start of the growth). Ditto, for the ordinary hospitalizations, we went from 6,347 to 9,764 (still the peak in 4 weeks from the start of the growth)”.
Maruotti’s analysis then moves on to the regions. “There is a lot of heterogeneity. Lombardy is doing well, with decreasing infections, close to the peak of hospitalizations at levels that are half of last year; intensive care has grown rapidly, with numbers similar to last year – he specifies – Lazio, on the other hand, cases in new growth, after a brief and limited slowdown in the rate of increase; ordinary and intensive care beds on the rise, it is difficult to say when and by how much the peak will be at the moment”.
The point about the flu
And the 2023 flu is also moving fast in Italy: 630 thousand infections in the last week (27 November – 3 December), almost 3 million Italians affected since the start of epidemic surveillance. “The number of cases of influenza-like syndromes (Ili) continues to increase in Italy. In the 48th week (27 November – 3 December), the incidence is equal to 10.7 cases per thousand assisted (9.3 in the previous week It is underlined that various respiratory viruses and not just influenza viruses contribute to this increase”, highlights the latest epidemiological report RespiVirNet published by the ISS. In the week monitored by the report, “the estimated cases of flu-like syndrome, compared to the entire Italian population, are approximately 630,000, for a total of approximately 2,946,000 cases since the start of surveillance”.
“The incidence is increasing in all age groups, but children under the age of five are most affected, where the incidence is equal to 24.7 cases per thousand assisted (18.5 in the previous week). Last year season in this same week the incidence in children under five years was equal to 49.2 thousand assisted cases”, records the report. In other age groups, the incidence reaches 11.41 (15-64 years) and among individuals aged 65 or over 6.33 cases per thousand assisted”, concludes the report.
“Kisses and hugs? Better to avoid them”
“Given the increased circulation of Covid and influenza, we need to return to prudence. To avoid infections, it is better to avoid greetings with kisses and hugs, a widespread habit among Italians, especially in the South. Maintain a little physical distance, in these cases, it is not a sign of less affection but a gesture of attention towards oneself and others”. The advice comes from Filippo Anelli, president of the National Federation of Medical and Dental Associations (Fnomceo) who, based on the growing data on Sars-Cov-2 and influenza infections, invites us to “return to prudent attitudes because during the Christmas holidays we will have a peak in infections, both for flu diseases and for coronavirus”.
“We must obviously underline – continues Anelli – that Covid today is not what we experienced in 2020-/21, it is less scary. But it still remains a fearful disease. Unfortunately, mortality data is on the rise, 200 people die every week with an increasing trend. We no longer have a precise surveillance system on viral circulation but the data on hospitalizations, resuscitations and deaths clearly highlight the strong increase. For this reason, as the holidays approach, with the greater frequency of meetings in closed places, we need to be very cautious. Let’s remember the things we learned during the pandemic: the transmission of these viruses passes through droplets of saliva. For this reason, it is not okay to kiss to exchange greetings. And, in general, let’s apply the hygiene measures that we know”.
For example, “in very crowded places, the use of a mask is not a bad idea”, concludes the president of Fnomceo, recalling that above all “it is necessary to get vaccinated against Covid and against the flu. The vaccine is the only real weapon that we have and we must use it.”
“Get vaccinated before Christmas”
“Covid cases are also increasing in Rome. We need to get vaccinated, get vaccinated and get vaccinated and do it before Christmas, even against the flu”, the president of the Order of Doctors, Surgeons and Dentists (Omceo) tells Adnkronos Health. of Rome and its province, Antonio Magi, who launches an appeal to the over 60s, the frail and the immunosuppressed to get immunized in these two weeks until Christmas. “The vaccines are here and soon there will also be open days to do anti-Covid, let’s not waste time”, he concludes.
The identikit of the patient at risk
“For Christmas there will be a simultaneous circulation of the flu, which will reach its peak, and Covid which will continue to circulate a lot. But we shouldn’t even think about a return of restrictions like in 2020. Today the identikit of the patient arriving in hospital unfortunately it is the 80-90 year old who has never had the booster dose in 2022 and 2023 – he tells Adnkronos Salute Matteo Bassetti, director of infectious diseases at the San Martino polyclinic hospital in Genoa – . I’m far behind. Senator Malan is right, there are no fans and we cannot think of a return to lockdown, obligations and masks. It is a typical viral circulation where Covid and flu intersect, I believe that the most important thing is not to talk about Ffp2 or closures but to convince elderly people to get vaccinated. Today we gave the anti-Covid vaccine to one in six over 80s while we should reach 50%.”
Covid “will ruin the Christmas holidays for many Italians”, is the ruling of Pier Luigi Lopalco, professor of Hygiene at the University of Salento. “The circulation of the virus – he tells Adnkronos Salute – is destined to increase in these weeks. We have no reason to think the opposite even for the occupancy of beds, given that vaccination never really started. The malaise caused by Covid lasts from 5 days to two weeks, getting infected is not a good experience, particularly during the Christmas period”, says the epidemiologist.
For Lopalco, to improve vaccination compliance against Covid, which is currently very low, “a strategy was certainly needed. Now we are just trying to patch up an uncontrollable situation. The idea of solving the problem with a bit of information and with the Open days it’s like saying that we want to solve the problem of poverty with a day of fundraising”.
“In the week of Christmas we could reach 800 thousand cases including actual influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), metapneumovirus and even a bit of Covid”, on which “it is difficult to make estimates because the data are always underestimated”. This is the scenario envisaged by virologist at the Fabrizio Pregliasco State University of Milanwhich for “the key week” foresees a good number of Italians put to bed by “syndromes with fever above 38 degrees”, he explains to Adnkronos Salute, and at least “one respiratory symptom plus one general symptom”.
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