China's population decline accelerates in 2023 for the second consecutive year

China continues without finding the formula to promote birth rates and reverse the serious demographic crisis that, according to experts, will have serious long-term effects on the growth of the world's second largest economy. The National Statistics Office (ONE) revealed this Wednesday that the Chinese population decreased in 2023 for the second consecutive year due to a combination of two factors: a collapse in the birth rate to its lowest point since the founding of the People's Republic , in 1949, and an increase in the mortality rate, which reached its highest level since 1969, when the country was immersed in the Cultural Revolution, according to the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post.

The Asian giant, which last spring lost its position as the most populous nation on the planet to India, closed 2023 with 1,409.67 million inhabitants, which represents a reduction of 2.08 million compared to the previous year. The figure is much higher than the decline of 850,000 people experienced in 2022, the first since the famine period of the late 1950s and early 1960s.

“Chinese authorities repeat that 'the world is experiencing profound changes never seen in a century', marked by the rise of China. But, in reality, the planet is experiencing a change unprecedented in millennia marked by the rapid decline of the Chinese population and civilization,” demographer Yi Fuxian, a scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, tells EL PAÍS.

“The demographic crisis exceeds the imagination of Chinese officials and the international community, and China's economic prospects are bleaker than expected,” Yi said. The United Nations has recalculated its data and predicts that China's population will shrink three times more than expected by 2050, the year in which it will drop to 1,313 million, while, by 2100, it will be below 800 million. .

Drastic increase in mortality rate since the covid-19 pandemic

The ONE reported this morning that, in 2023, 11.10 million deaths were recorded, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The figure has not taken experts by surprise. In January 2023, shortly after Beijing unexpectedly ended three years of restrictions to curb the spread of the coronavirus, China faced the worst wave of Covid-19 infections since the start of the global health crisis. Despite the fact that the World Health Organization has asked for transparency on numerous occasions, the Chinese authorities have reported to the UN body a total of 121,889 deaths from covid since 2020, most of them, after the dismantling of the draconian policy of zero covid.

The official data contrasts greatly with the images of saturated hospitals, full morgues and overflowing crematoriums that populated Chinese social networks in late 2022 and early 2023, and which fueled suspicions that the Government was downplaying the situation. However, figures published this Wednesday show that the mortality rate has increased dramatically since the start of the pandemic. In 2020, it stood at 7.07 per thousand inhabitants; in 2021, at 7.18 and, in 2022, at 7.37. The figure shoots up even more in 2023, when 7.87 deaths per thousand inhabitants were recorded, the highest rate since 1969.

All-time low birth rate

China's population growth has been slowing since before the pandemic, despite the incessant efforts of the authorities, who have been encouraging procreation with preferential policies for several years. In fact, the birth rate in the country has not stopped decreasing since 2016, a year after Beijing put an end to the very harsh one child policy with which they tried to limit the explosive growth of the population for three decades.

However, although since 2021 the Government has even allowed married couples to have up to three children, the trend has not been reversed. In 2023, the number of births was reduced from 9.56 million to 9.02 million, as announced by the ONE today. The figure per thousand inhabitants fell from 6.77 in 2022 to 6.39 in 2023, a new historical low since the creation of communist China.

As happened in other societies, the change in priorities responds to China's own development and modernization, but also to the high costs of raising children and the uncertainty of the economic environment and the labor market. However, demographers point out that inequality and the expectation that women take on the role of family caregivers also deters many young women from taking a break in their careers to become mothers.

But, although Chinese women are increasingly aware of their rights thanks to the rise of the fight against sexual harassment and workplace discrimination, patriarchal ideals have not yet been relegated to the past. At the end of October, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that “it is necessary to cultivate a new culture of marriage and motherhood,” a proposal that involves “guiding women to play a unique role in promoting virtues.” traditions of the Chinese nation” and for “guiding young people's vision of marriage, motherhood and family.”

Although censorship has silenced much of the feminist debate in the Asian giant, in the last decade many young people have changed their attitude towards relationships and marriage and, little by little, are breaking with the most traditional values. This is the case of Kan, 26 years old, whose situation could be enviable among her generation: she has a stable job and her parents have recently given her an apartment – ​​although tiny – in a central area of ​​Beijing. Having just inaugurated her stage as an “independent woman”, as she defines herself, she states that she has no intention of getting married or having children “before 40″. “I don't believe that happiness is limited to marriage,” she commented last weekend in a bar in the capital. “I want to travel and enjoy life, single or as a couple, and be able to develop as a person before thinking about babies,” she noted.

Against this backdrop, the Asian power faces the challenge of keeping pace with an aging society with fewer children, which adds a lot of pressure to the pension system, which could collapse by 2035, according to forecasts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Currently, the retirement age is set at 60 for men and 55 for women. According to official statistics, those over 60 years of age already represent 21.1% of the population; In 2023, there were 296.97 million and it is estimated that, by 2035, there will be more than 400 million, more than the total population of the United States.

_