Montevideo, Dec 4 (EFE).- The Mercosur summit, which begins tomorrow in Montevideo, will mark a turning point in the bloc’s negotiations with China, since while Brazil and the future president of Uruguay want joint talks, Paraguay wants to expand them to “Asian countries” and Argentina prefers to seek a trade agreement with the United States.
Uruguay and its change of vision towards China
The recent election of Yamandú Orsi as president of Uruguay marks a shift in the country’s stance on an agreement with China. Although Orsi has shown himself open to strengthening bilateral relations between Uruguay and the Asian giant, his approach prioritizes a regional negotiation framework.
In a recent press conference after meeting with the Chinese ambassador, Orsi – elected president on November 24 – expressed that any progress towards a Free Trade Agreement must involve Mercosur as a bloc.
This aligns with his electoral promise to consolidate Uruguay’s position within Mercosur, contrasting with more independent initiatives of the current outgoing president, Luis Lacalle Pou.
During his mandate, which ends on March 1, Lacalle Pou promoted bilateral negotiations with China, arguing that the negotiating power of Mercosur should be used jointly, but that Uruguay could not remain inactive waiting for consensus.
Although he promoted a feasibility study for a trade agreement with China, this did not materialize. Orsi now inherits this agenda, but with a renewed focus that will seek to align the interests of the bloc.
Javier Milei’s commitment to the United States
For his part, the president of Argentina, Javier Milei, has taken a different course by favoring a trade alliance with the United States. In November, Milei met with Donald Trump, who will assume the presidency again in January, to propose the creation of an “alliance of free nations.” This initiative seeks not only to strengthen political ties, but also to open new commercial and cultural paths.
Before his meeting with Trump, Milei had already expressed his intention to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement with the United States. According to him, these negotiations could be developed with the same determination as bilateral discussions with China, but with a particular focus on diversifying markets and aligning with the values of the “free world.”
This preference could introduce a different dynamic into Mercosur’s priorities, by diverting Argentine interest towards a power traditionally distant from the bloc in commercial terms.
Brazil and its key role in negotiations with China
The president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has reinforced his commitment to establishing a closer relationship between China and Mercosur. During a recent meeting with Xi Jinping in Brasilia, both leaders agreed to deepen dialogue between the Asian power and the regional bloc to strengthen trade. Lula emphasized that moving forward together as Mercosur offers a much stronger negotiating position than that of any individual country.
Brazil, as the bloc’s largest economy, plays a crucial role in these negotiations. Their interest in working with China not only responds to the obvious economic benefits, but also to a strategic positioning against other global powers. This could consolidate Mercosur as a relevant actor in intercontinental trade relations.
Paraguay and its delicate diplomatic balance
Paraguay’s position, led by President Santiago Peña, introduces a unique diplomatic nuance in Mercosur trade discussions. Peña has defended that any trade agreement must be negotiated as a bloc and respect the particularities of each member country. In the case of Paraguay, this includes maintaining its historical diplomatic relationship with Taiwan, which complicates the possibility of establishing direct ties with China.
To overcome this obstacle, Peña has proposed expanding negotiations towards “Asian countries”, a strategy that would allow Paraguay to diversify its trade relations without breaking its alliance with Taiwan. This approach suggests exploring markets in Japan, South Korea and other countries in the region, which could open new opportunities for Mercosur and ensure that Paraguay is not left out of multilateral agreements.
Tensions and opportunities in Montevideo
The diversity of positions within Mercosur reflects the challenges and opportunities of the bloc in an increasingly competitive commercial world. While Uruguay and Brazil seek to strengthen ties with China, Argentina focuses its gaze on the United States, and Paraguay tries to maintain a balance between its diplomatic commitments and its participation in the bloc.
In this context, the Montevideo summit will be a turning point. The participation of Yamandú Orsi as president-elect of Uruguay could provide an integrative vision that reinforces the role of Mercosur as a regional actor on the global stage. Furthermore, the interaction between Milei, Lula and Peña will be decisive in drawing up a common roadmap or, on the contrary, exposing the divergences that could weaken the bloc.
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