Chavismo celebrates 25 years in power in Venezuela with the challenge of staying in this

Last Friday, Chavismo reached 25 years in power. On February 2, 1999, Hugo Chávez took office as president of Venezuela, and since then, nothing has been the same in one of the richest countries in the region. But, this year, the ruling party is risking its continuity in the presidential elections, still undated.

(Also read: María Corina Machado will continue with her presidential candidacy, despite the Supreme Court ruling)

Democracy, human rights, freedom of expression, economy, coups and attempted coups d'état; Assassination attempts, breaking of diplomatic relations and sanctions have marked these almost three decades, which, for different reasons, leave some 7.7 million Venezuelans refugees and exiles.

From 1999 to today

Chávez, a popular class military man, comes to power with the support of the great elites, who, although they knew the risks that the same one who led the 1992 coup against President Carlos Andrés Pérez, would not follow democratic paths. However, they preferred to support him, although they would later regret it.

The most difficult test was April 11, 2002. That day, Chávez received a coup d'état that left him out of power for three days. Since then, upon his return, the persecution of the media has intensified, accused of being participants in the event, which gave way to communication restrictions that to date amount to more than 400 media outlets closed.

(Also read: Maduro calls on the Armed Forces to remain 'alert and prepared for whatever comes')

In 2013, Nicolás Maduro died and was succeeded by Nicolás Maduro, who went to elections and won against Henrique Capriles by a small margin. Maduro was the winner with 50.66 percent of the votes, compared to 49.07 percent for Capriles.

“Maduro turned out to be worse than Chávez and now he is leading us to the Nicaraguan model,” political scientist Carlos Zambrano tells this newspaper., recounting how citizen protests have been repressed and with deadly results; the creation of torture centers, the existence of political prisoners “and all possible forms of violation of human rights.”

Economy and oil

Chávez, although he laid the foundations for what has been the great Venezuelan economic crisis, kept the exchange rate and in some way the oil activity, which was always above 2,000, at bay. 000 barrels daily.

Maduro has clung to what he calls an “unconventional war” against “imperialism” – as he calls the United States -, and always attributes responsibility for the country's problems to the sanctions with which Washington sought to strip him of power in 2019.

In 2022 there was a slight economic recovery, insignificant compared to the 80% reduction in GDP in a decade. And hyperinflation of thousands of percentage points led the government, ironically, to allow informal dollarization.

The oil industry, which generates virtually all of the country's income, is also devastated: blame the sanctions, the government says; apathy, corruption and lack of qualified personnel (many fired after a strike in 2002), experts say.

Oil production reached 300,000 barrels a day before rebounding to 900,000 today.

“Chavismo has represented an important tragedy for the country,” Benigno Alarcón, political scientist and professor at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB), tells AFP. “A government that, having initially had the largest income of any government in Venezuela and having had the opportunity to make Venezuela a modern country (…), wasted the money on clientelism to stay in power” .

(Also read: Venezuela threatens the US with suspending repatriation flights if it imposes sanctions)

Rodrigo Cabezas, who was Chávez's finance minister, makes a distinction between “chavismo” and “madurismo.” “The confrontation with the United States is the great alibi of Madurism to try to justify its tremendous incompetence in the management of the State, the economy, and society, to try to justify its terribly authoritarian drift, violating human rights,” he explains to AFP. the now professor at the University of Zulia.
“This is the most unequal capitalism in Latin America,” he criticizes, in the midst of dollarization and the liberation of exchange and price controls.

Policy

For Ana Sofía Cabezas, vice president of the Chávez Foundation, the Constitution is “one of the most important things that Commander Chávez has left us.” The text, approved in 1999 and promoted by the former president, is an example of human and social rights, although detractors of Chavismo accuse them of being its main violators. Chávez represented “the hope of change and social redemption,” says Cabezas, recalling that he always easily won the elections in which he participated: 1998, 2000, 2006 and 2012, months before he died.

The former president changed the Constitution to be able to be re-elected indefinitely, now benefiting Maduro, re-elected in 2018 and set to seek a third term this year.

Human rights

“Maduro has an open investigation in the International Court of Justice, not even Chávez,” repeats Professor Zambrano, who considers that, in addition to the economy, this has been the hardest hit area along with democracy.

(Also: Venezuela threatens the US to suspend repatriation flights if it imposes sanctions)

“That they investigate you for committing crimes against humanity, that is very serious. But the worst thing is that, even so, Chavismo is still in power and the way things are going, it is going to stay,” repeats Zambrano, who in his opinion, this year is “decisive” because the ruling party has the lowest popularity. of all history and “measure yourself” in competitive elections, it is going to be expensive.

Presidential elections 2024

The continuity of Chavismo is at stake. This year there are presidential elections and Maduro, if they were today, according to data from the Polianalítico firm, Chávez's successor would only have 18.1 percent approval as opposed to the 52.3 percent of the opposition María Corina Machado, who has been Disqualified from holding public office for 15 years.

This has brought a strong confrontation with the United States, which is pressing for Machado to be authorized or else it will reimpose sanctions on Caracas, which has said it does not “care” about the “gringo threats.”

Maduro said this Wednesday that if the court's decision was to maintain the sanction against Machado, that would be the case and that the elections would be held in the same way.

ANA MARÍA RODRÍGUEZ BRAZÓN
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
With information from AFP