The Business Confederation of the Valencian Community (CEV) has quantified the effects of DANA in the province of Valencia on the growth of the Valencian economy and estimates that will mean cutting the expected increase in GDP by more than two points autonomous region in the last quarter of 2024.
The CEV Economic Outlook and Outlook Report estimates that the real impact of DANA on the economy in the fourth quarter It will detract more than two points from year-on-year growthwhich after the downward revision would be close to 1.2%.
In quarterly rate activity could contract by up to 1.6%. If these extremes are confirmed, and taking into account the dynamism that economic activity was showing until the end of October, the regional economy could close the year with a global advance of around 2.5%points out the Valencian employers’ association.
According to the latest report from the Valencia employers’ association, the activity In the third quarter it has grown at a speed of 3.9% in an annualized ratean advance greater than expected and a rebound with respect to the evolution of the previous quarter.
Looking ahead to the following quarters, in a scenario of progressive recovery, which includes the recovery of mobility, as well as the effects of direct aid to the productive fabric and affected citizens, the regional economy could grow in 2025 in the around 2.3%. However, this growth is not expected to be homogeneous between the sectors and their productive branches.
By sectors
The slower recovery will occur in the agricultural sectorin which full production of uprooted trees could be delayed for up to five years. In the industrial sector, the recovery will be more heterogeneous among its various branches, and some, such as that of the metal, they do not expect to recover previous levels until mid-2026. The recovery of the macro services sector will be faster, although uneven between its branches and with different scope. The hospitality branch and retail trade discount definitive closures of businesses located in the affected area. Finally, the construction sector will be the sector that will register the most activity in the reconstruction process.
The CEV warns that, to a large extent, the speed and intensity of the recovery will depend on the level of direct support that companies and businesses receive, as well as progress in the reconstruction of infrastructure.
The employers once again appeal to the different Administrations so that improve coordination in reconstruction and increase direct aid for companies and the self-employed. This aid must be more intense in its amount and agile in its management, and be targeted selectively at the most affected branches. Along the same lines, the Insurance Compensation Consortium is also called upon to accelerate pending payments, thus facilitating the immediate availability of essential resources for affected companies and self-employed workers.
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