Cancer mortality decreasing in Europe. Age-standardized cancer mortality rates will decrease by 6.5% in men, from 132 per 100,000 in 2018 to 123 per 100,000 in 2024, and by 4% in women, from 82.5 to 79 per 100,000. The reduction is even more marked in the United Kingdom, where by 2024 a reduction in mortality is expected of almost 14% in men, going from a rate of 120 to 104 per 100,000, and of 10% in women, going from 92.5 at 83 per 100,000. The estimate comes from a study, coordinated by the University of Milan together with the University of Bologna and supported by the Airc Foundation, published in the journal 'Annals of Oncology'.
However, a due to the aging of the population – the researchers clarify – a increase in the number of deaths from cancer from 675,265 in 2018 to over 705,100 in 2024 in men, and from 535,291 to over 565,700 in women, reaching 1,270,800. In the United Kingdom, an increase is estimated from 91,059 to 92,000 in men and from 79,631 to 80,900 in women, for a total of 172,900 deaths expected by 2024. The researchers also calculated the number of cancer deaths averted between 1989 and 2024, assuming that rates remained constant compared to 1988 levels. It is estimated that overall 6,183,000 deaths were avoided in the EU (4,244,000 in men and 1,939,000 in women) and 1,325,000 in the United Kingdom ( 899,000 in men and 426,000 in women).
Lung cancer confirmed as a 'big killer'. Although there is a favorable trend in men, this cancer is characterized by the highest rates for both sexes, both in the European Union and in the United Kingdom. For 2024, researchers estimate mortality rates of 28 men and 13.6 women per 100,000 inhabitants in the EU, with a reduction compared to 2018 of 15% in men and none in women. In the UK, lung cancer mortality rates are estimated to be 19 men and 16 women per 100,000, a reduction of 22% in men and 17% in women compared to 2018.
In both the EU and the UK, currently, the Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death for men after lung cancer and for women the third leading cause of death after breast and lung cancer. Mortality trends for this type of cancer are favourable, except in women in the UK. In the EU, for 2024, a decrease in colorectal cancer mortality is estimated by 5% in men, with an expected rate of 15 per 100,000, and by 9% in women, with a rate of 8 per 100,000. In the UK, a 3% decline is expected in men, with a rate of 14 per 100,000, while numbers will remain stable in women, with a rate of 10 per 100,000. “Mortality rates tend to decrease in countries with better access to screening and early diagnosis programs. However, the increase in mortality among young people is worrying”, commented Carlo La Vecchia, professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the University of Milan .
The trends of breast cancer mortality they continue to be favorable in EW and the UK. In 2024, a decrease of 6% is expected in the Union, from 14 per 100,000 women in 2018 to 13 in 2024, and by 11% in the United Kingdom, from 15 to 13 per 100,000 women. “Advances in the diagnosis of breast cancer play a fundamental role in the substantial decline in mortality rates, but advances in treatments and management of the disease are the main reasons for the increase in the number of people who survive”, underlines Eva Negri, professor of Environmental Epidemiology and Occupational Medicine at the Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences of the University of Bologna and co-leader of the research.
Pancreatic cancer is the only one for which a favorable trend in mortality is not expected in the European Union (but not in the United Kingdom) for both sexes. It represents over 3% of new cancer diagnoses in Europe, but around 7% of cancer deaths, and is the fourth leading cause of cancer death. Mortality rates in the EU are expected to increase by 1.6% in men and 4% in women. Trends are better in the United Kingdom, where a decline of 7% in men and 2% in women is estimated. “Smoking is the main risk factor for pancreatic cancer, but it only partially explains the increased mortality rates. Overweight, obesity, diabetes as well as excessive alcohol consumption can also play a role important,” says Negri.
“These predictions highlight the importance of controlling and ultimately eliminating tobacco use. Tobacco remains responsible for 25% of all cancer deaths among men and 15% among women in the European Union – recalls La Vecchia – Not only is it the main risk factor for deaths from lung cancer, but also for other types of cancer, including pancreatic cancer. A further problem is represented by the increase in consumption of spirits in Central Europe and northern”.
“Our forecasts also highlight the importance of bridging gaps between European countries regarding cancer diagnosis and treatment programs – conclude the researchers – Mortality rates continue to be higher in Poland and other countries in the Central and Eastern Europe, and this is partly due to the inadequacy of screening programs to detect cancers such as breast, cervical and colorectal cancer, as well as the lack of access to the most modern therapies.”
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