A “little secret” between former President Donald Trump and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, is fueling Democrats’ nightmares ahead of the legislative elections that are also being voted on on November 5.
At stake are all 435 seats in the entire Lower House, where Republicans now have a majority, and a third of the 100 seats in the Senate, where there is a Democratic majority. The scenario that does not let the Democrats sleep is that Johnson aligns with Trump to try to stop the certification of Kamala Harris’ victory if she wins.
The remote possibility of Johnson being re-elected again speaker and encountering the electoral certification of Harris’ victory is something that Democratic congressmen have been considering for some time. In 2020, Johnson already worked with Trump to undermine the election result by leading a campaign to overturn the results in four key states where Joe Biden won. Democrats’ nerves were shot when Trump, during the Madison Square Garden rally, discussed a “little secret” with Johnson.
“I think that with our little secret we will do very well in the Chamber [de Representantes]”Trump said, addressing Johnson, who was also one of the speakers of the night. “Our little secret is having a big impact. “He and I have a little secret: we will tell you what it is when the campaign ends.” From here on, the Democrats have not stopped speculating about what Johnson could and could not do and what would happen if the Republicans get the majority in the Lower House and he is re-elected president.
The conditional that Johnson used in an interview with NBC was also not reassuring, where the journalist asked him if he would commit to following the regular process to certify the result in 2025. “Of course, if we have a free, fair and secure election, we will to respect the Constitution. Of course it is,” Johnson said.
Even so, the scenario of Johnson being re-elected speaker of the House of Representatives seems highly unlikely. The projections of the latest polls on the legislative electoral race go in the opposite direction and suggest that an unprecedented scenario could occur in Congress in which both chambers change color. That is, victory for the Democrats in the Lower House (which is now under Republican control) and victory for the Republicans in the Senate (where the Democrats have the majority).
While in the House of Representatives it is presided over by speakerwho is elected by vote by congressmen, the Senate is presided over by the country’s vice president, who has the power to cast a tie-breaking vote. Another of its tasks is to certify the presidential results. In 2020, Trump pressured – unsuccessfully – his vice president, Mike Pence, not to certify the result in the Senate.
The certification of the result by the Upper House is a mere formality, since nowhere in the Constitution is the president of the Senate given the power to annul the electoral victory. Although if Pence had given in to Trump’s pressure, it would have been a dangerous scenario.
Currently, as Harris is the vice president, she is also the president of the Senate and, therefore, could find herself having to certify her own victory.
Before the time of certification in Congress, Johnson would have other possibilities if he wanted to help Trump. He could help organize Republican lawsuits or pressure state election boards to throw out legitimate votes. It could also reject electors from certain states and attempt to refuse to accept new Democratic members of the House of Representatives.
Avoid blockages
Beyond preventing the worst scenario from becoming a reality, Democrats have a special interest in winning the House of Representatives for two reasons, which are the sides of the same coin. In a scenario where Harris wins, having control of the House of Representatives would allow many of the campaign promises to be expedited and would avoid blocking situations such as the one experienced with the military aid package for Ukraine.
Likewise, if it is Trump who wins the elections, having control of the lower house would guarantee the Democrats a certain margin of maneuver to be able to limit the tycoon’s actions. This same logic works the same from the perspective of the Republicans, who want to ensure that they maintain the majority in the Lower House.
In the case of the House of Representatives, the majority is at 218 seats. Currently, Republicans have 220 and Democrats 213. Democrats, if they keep their current seats, only have to gain five more seats to control the lower house. In total, there are eight Republican congressmen who are likely to lose their seats and all of them are in two strongly Democratic states: New York and California. Outside of safe territory, two Republicans in Iowa are fighting hard to keep their seats: Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn. In Nebraska, the seat of Republican Don Bacon, representative of the Omaha district, could also be in danger. Four more Republicans could see their place in jeopardy, two in Arizona, one in Oregon and one in Pennsylvania. In total there are 15 vulnerable seats for the Republicans, compared to 11 doubtful seats for the Democrats.
Although in the comparison the Democrats have better prospects than the Republicans, there are still 11 races that could be lost: Congresswomen Mary Peltola in Alaska, Yadira Caraveo in Colorado, Jared Golden in Maine, Don Davis in North Carolina, Gabe Vásquez in Nuevo Mexico, Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania, and Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez in Washington state. And there are two undecided seats in Michigan, as well as one in Virginia.
In the Senate, the Democrats currently have a majority of 51 thanks to a coalition with independent senators, while the Republicans have 49. This year there are 34 seats at stake in the Upper House and the Democrats start at a disadvantage, since they defend 23 seats , while the Republicans only 11. To control the Senate, the Republicans only need one seat if Trump wins or two seats if he loses.
Of the 34 seats up for grabs, 11 are considered contestable. The most likely first seat would come from West Virginia. Then there is Montana, where if the Republicans win there they could take two seats, which would guarantee them a majority in the Senate regardless of who wins the presidential elections. Seven other seats that Democrats have to defend are in Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maryland.
On the other hand, the Democrats’ hope would be in a markedly Republican state like Texas. There the polls show how the Republican Senate Ted Cruz has numbers of losing against the Democrat Colin Allred. The bet is so strong that Democrats have invested millions in this campaign.
In Florida, another red state, there is also a possibility with Senator Rick Scott’s seat. Finally, Nebraska could also help Democrats.
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