Putin is asking Germany to pay for Russian gas imports in rubles. Otherwise he turns off the gas tap. But can he carry out the threat?
Moscow/Berlin – On July 11, the Russian operator Gazprom started the planned 10-day annual maintenance work on the gas pipeline “Nord Stream 1”. Russia’s President Wladimir Putin only wants to accept the ruble for Russian natural gas. Immediately after the announcement, the ruble rose again. Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck called Putin’s request a “breach of the contract”.
Dollars and euros have been agreed as means of payment, according to the contract. Chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to pay in rubles and, like Habeck, referred to the deal. “That’s something that applies. And it usually says euros or US dollars.” Putin’s demand is a further escalation of the economic war between the West and the United States Russia. It is uncertain whether the energy supply will actually come to a standstill.
Russia: Financial interest in gas supplies
“Russia has an interest in servicing the contracts because there are enormous revenues behind it. But in the end you can’t look inside Mr Putin’s head and that’s why I think it’s a good idea to take precautions as far as possible,” said Dominik Möst, Professor of Energy Economics at TU Dresden MDR.
According to Jörg Lingens, who works at the Chair of Microeconomics at the University of Münster, “coal can be used instead of gas to generate electricity”. Therefore, “the omission of Nord Stream 1 gas for electricity production would be less problematic anyway, since only about 12 to 13 percent of the natural gas is converted into electricity.”
Expert: Gas from Russia will not be permanently turned off
With the so-called process heat, however, this is much more difficult. “A baker, for example, cannot simply feed his gas-powered oven with another energy source, nor can a household replace the gas heating with other energy sources.” However, Lingens does not assume that Putin will turn off the gas: “Russia is dependent on the gas income .”
Lingens does not believe that Putin will permanently turn off the gas. Nonetheless, he believes prices will skyrocket as Putin could turn off the gas first and then monitor reactions. “If he sees a lot of unrest in this country, he will turn on the tap again and supply gas. His calculus will be that, given the desire for cheap gas, people will work towards peace in the Ukraine speak out and look ahead.” (Ares Abasi)
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