Electoral political polls today January 26, 2023
POLITICAL ELECTION SURVEYS – The ascendant parable of the Brothers of Italy in the political polls suddenly deflates, but for Meloni and his men it is only a first alarm bell and nothing more. The gap accumulated by the prime minister’s party with respect to her opponents (and allies), in fact, remains abysmal in any case. But, according to what Nando Pagnoncelli of Ipsos according to Corriere della Sera, in the last month the party that triumphed in the last elections has reversed course for the first time. From the rear come the government allies – Lega and Forza Italia – but also the 5 Star Movement, which is constantly growing. Let’s see the percentages of all parties.
Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy remains firmly in the lead in voting intentions, as confirmed by Pagnoncelli’s political poll. However, there is a first important setback to report: in the last month, the party of the Prime Minister loses 1.2%, falling to 30.5%. The distance with the opponents, however, remains very wide: Giuseppe Conte’s 5 Star Movement – the second political force in the country, polls in hand – despite growing by 0.6% it does not go beyond 18.2%. The Democratic Party of the outgoing Enrico Letta also marks a very slight rise, waiting to know who will be the new secretary: up 0.1% and returns to 16.4%.
In the rear there is certainly more movement. Matteo Salvini’s League – albeit very far from past levels – tries to recover with a plus 0.5% which brings it back to 8.3%. Meanwhile, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia leaps forward by 0.6% to 6.8%. In practice, Giorgia Meloni’s two main allies recover what is lost by the government leader’s party.
HOW POLLS ARE MADE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by polling companies according to precise scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analysed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for political parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Generally a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that the pollsters face the greatest difficulty. Interviews for electoral political polls are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion poll companies rely on specialized companies.
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