According to analysts, Russian President Vladimir Putin bet on the length of the war and its reflection on the impatience of the West and the Europeans’ feeling of the repercussions of the war’s expenses in Ukraine on their lives, and then asking their governments to ease the attitudes of the continent’s countries towards Russia, and then forcing them to lift some sanctions imposed on Russia. Moscow.
Which was explicitly rejected earlier by the European Union foreign policy official, Joseph Borrell, stressing the continued support of Kyiv and its military forces, but the reality on the ground was more difficult, as protests and strikes pervaded many countries, led by Germany, France and Britain, punishing 3 heads of government since The beginning of the war, while the largest ally awaits mid-term elections, all expectations point to the rise of a republic, and then the possibility of stopping aid.
And the American Axios website quoted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba as saying that he is concerned about recent threats by senior US Republican lawmakers to cut aid to Ukraine if they seize control of the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections next month.
British aid freeze
• The Telegraph quoted sources as saying that Rishi Sunak is considering freezing the country’s foreign aid budget for an additional two years
• Sunak, upon assuming power, affirmed that there was no change in his country’s support for Ukraine, but stressed that this ugly war “must end successfully.”
• Sunak places most of his focus on the economic situation, and any other matter that may not be a priority for him. The recent political developments in the country contain evidence of these trends
• After the departure of Johnson and Terrace from the political scene, only Defense Minister Ben Wallace left a strong defender of Kyiv’s military and financial support in the Conservative government.
• Sunak, who was finance minister at the time, said last year that external spending should return to 0.7% of economic output by 2024-2025.
• The Telegraph report said that officials are considering extending the spending cuts on foreign aid for another two years to 2026-2027
What if the Republicans win?
• There was strong bipartisan support for providing assistance to Ukraine early in the war, but later, Republican members of the House of Representatives expressed doubts about providing additional military support as the war continued
• In May, 57 House Republicans voted “no” to a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine
• The number of lawmakers opposing aid is expected to rise after the elections, especially if more skeptical candidates are drawn into Congress, according to Axios.
US aid to Ukraine
• The largest donor of military aid to Ukraine
• It amounted to more than 18.5 billion dollars
• It included HIMARS missile launchers and the “NASMAS” missile system.
• 1400 Stinger anti-aircraft defense system
• 8500 Javelin anti-armored vehicle system
• 32,000 different anti-armor systems
British aid
• Britain is the second largest donor of military aid to Ukraine after the United States
• Has trained 27 thousand personnel of the Ukrainian army since 2015
• Provided hundreds of missiles, 5 air defense systems, 120 armored vehicles and other equipment
• The total British aid (military-economic) to Ukraine this year amounted to 3.8 billion pounds.
Energy dilemma and popular erosion
On the impact of the British crisis and the US elections, political analyst Leon Radziocini told Sky News Arabia that the Russian president employed energy resources as a tool in the confrontation with the West in the face of the sanctions imposed against his country.
Radziosini added that the bloc’s leaders strongly helped Ukraine, sending all kinds of weapons, and decided to distance the European economy from cheap Russian oil and gas, but the transition process was not easy, and was accompanied by widespread threats to erode popular support.
He explained that the relationship between economic pressure and popular opinion about the Ukraine war was being tested, which was reflected in the rapid departure of the government of Liz Terrace, and before it, the failure of Macron’s coalition to obtain a majority, as well as democratic fears of losing the majority due to the repercussions of the war.
He considered that the loss of the two largest allies is unlikely. Talking before the elections is one thing and in the corridors of government is another matter, especially since everyone has been involved in support and anti-Russianism. However, if the aid stops, that means a heavy and quick defeat for Ukraine.
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