11/09/2024 – 10:53
Former coach Pablo Marçal (PRTB) surpassed Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB), reached 24.4% of voting intentions and is now technically tied with Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), with 28%, in the race for Mayor of São Paulo, according to an AtlasIntel survey released this Wednesday, 11. Nunes appears in third with 20.1%.
This is the first time that Marçal has been ahead of the mayor outside the margin of error, in this case two percentage points (pp), although by a minimal advantage. The influencer grew 8.4 pp compared to the previous round of the survey, released on August 20, maintaining the upward trend. Boulos fell 1 pp (he had 29%) and Nunes 1.9 pp (he had 22%).
In the second group, Tabata Amaral (PSB) registered 10.7% (previously 12%), José Luiz Datena, 7.2% (previously 10%), and Marina Helena (Novo), 4.7% (previously 4.3%). Ricardo Senese (UP) has 0.7% (previously 0.2%) and João Pimenta (PCO) still has no points. Blank and void votes are 2.5% and 1.7% did not know.
The survey’s confidence level is 95%. A total of 2,200 interviews were conducted between September 5 and 10 using the random digital recruitment methodology, in which the questionnaire is administered via the internet. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under protocol SP-01125/2024.
Second round
Atlas also measured second-round scenarios. Boulos and Marçal remain technically tied. The PSOL candidate has 44.1%, compared to 43.2% for the former coach – the previous score was 38% to 35%. Blank and void votes account for 12%, and undecided voters account for 0.7%.
The PSOL candidate, however, would be defeated in a possible second round against Nunes. The mayor grew 4.7 percentage points and reached 45.7% against 38.5% for Boulos (who previously had 37%). Blank and void votes total 13.6% and undecided voters, 2.2%.
Nunes would also win in a second round against Marçal by 48.2% to 29.2%, a difference of 19 percentage points, the largest recorded in all scenarios. In this case, 21.7% of those interviewed said they would vote blank or spoil their ballot and 1% did not know how to answer. There is no historical series of the survey in this confrontation.
Tabata would also beat Marçal if there is a second round between the two. The PSB candidate would have 49.8% against 43.4% of the former coach. Blank and void votes are 5.9% and there are 0.9% of undecided voters. She is technically tied with Nunes with 42% to 40.4% of him – blank and void votes are 15.6% and undecided voters 2% – and with Boulos, since both appear with 33.8% of voting intentions. In this last scenario, blank and void votes total 30.3% and undecided voters represent 2.1%.
Image of candidates and political leaders
Atlas also asked respondents whether they have a positive or negative image of the mayoral candidates. Pablo Marçal has the highest percentage of positive responses, with 40%, followed by Tabata Amaral (35%), Guilherme Boulos (32%), Ricardo Nunes (30%), Marina Helena (29%) and Datena (22%).
Boulos has the most negative image, with 59%, alongside Datena, with 56% and Nunes, with 55%. Marçal has 52% in this regard, followed by Tabata with 39% and Marina with 20%.
The campaigner with the best image is Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), a supporter of Nunes, who is well-regarded by 51% of those interviewed, against 45% who see him negatively. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who is campaigning for Boulos, is seen negatively by the majority of São Paulo residents, 52%. Another 41% said that his image is positive.
Jair Bolsonaro (PL), another Nunes supporter, is viewed positively by 35%, a lower percentage than Marçal, who is seeking to gain traction among the Bolsonarist electorate. The former president’s image is negative for 60% of the electorate.
#Boulos #Marçal #Nunes #AtlasIntel #Research
