Numerically, president surpasses PT in relation to poll released on August 11
Genial/Quaest survey released this Thursday (8.Sep.2022) shows that the current Chief Executive, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), is technically tied with the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN) in Sao Paulo. The president has 37% of voting intentions in the state against 36% for PT.
Despite keeping the technical tie pointed out in the last survey, released on August 11, the 2 candidates switched positions. At the time, Bolsonaro had 35%. Lula, 37%.
The survey conducted 2,000 face-to-face interviews from September 2 to 5, 2022. It is registered in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) with number SP-04685/2022. The margin of error is 2 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. It cost R$ 131,100.00 and was paid by Banco Genial.
Following Bolsonaro and Lula are:
Blanks and nulls are 6%. Undecided add up to 5%.
Despite being included in the survey, Roberto Jefferson had the candidacy barred by TSE on September 1, according to the Clean Record Law.
2nd TURN
As in the previous poll, Lula and Bolsonaro are also technically tied in São Paulo in an eventual 2nd round.
- Lula (PT): 43% (-1 pp);
- Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 42% (+2 pp)
- White/null/does not intend to vote: 12%;
- Undecided: 3%.
STATE GOVERNMENT
the former mayor Fernando Haddad (PT) is consolidated ahead in the electoral race in the State of São Paulo, with 33% of the voting intentions. Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) comes next, with 20%.
Read the ranking of all candidates for the government of the State of São Paulo:
White and null votes and people who say they will not vote add up to 15%. The undecided are 12%.
2nd SHIFT IN THE STATE
The research tested 3 2nd round scenarios. Read the results:
- Haddad X Tarcisio: 42% said they would vote for PT, against 36% for the candidate supported by Bolsonaro. White, null and will not vote are 12%; undecided, 10%;
- Haddad X Garcia: the former mayor would receive 40% of the votes, against 35% for the governor. White, null and will not vote are 16%; undecided, 9%;
- Tarcisio X Garcia: the former minister appears with 32%, while the current governor of the state has 30%. White, null and not going to vote are 20%; undecided, 18%.
SENATE
The Senate race for São Paulo is technically tied. the former governor Márcio França (PSB) appears with 25%, followed by the former minister Marcos Pontes (PL), with 23%.
Read how all the candidates scored:
White, null and not intending to vote add up to 19%. Undecided are 17%.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.
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