Blinken sees a “real opportunity” for more Arab countries to recognize Israel if it pushes for a Palestinian state

After passing through Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan, the Secretary of State of the United States, Antony Blinken, brought a message to Benjamin Netanyahu's Israel this Tuesday: it has a “real opportunity” to be recognized by new Arab countries, despite the crisis in the region, but it will only become a reality if it abandons its refusal to create a Palestinian State and offers a credible horizon of peace in the Middle East.

“Virtually every country I have visited wants to seek normalization [de relaciones con Israel]. Some have already taken vital steps towards this and others, I believe, are interested in doing the same. But it is just as clear that it will not replace or at the expense of Palestinian political rights and, ultimately, a Palestinian state. On the contrary. That peace has to be part of any normalization effort. “That has been part of my conversations on this tour, including in Saudi Arabia,” he said late in the afternoon, at a press conference in Tel Aviv.

Israel, which already maintained diplomatic relations with Jordan and Egypt, achieved the recognition of three other Arab countries (Morocco, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain) in 2020 without the need to offer counterparts in the Palestinian dossier. Saudi Arabia was close to joining the list when Hamas launched its attack, which triggered the current war and stopped the rapprochement. This same Tuesday, the leader of the Islamist movement, Ismail Haniya, cited among the reasons for the attack – which caused some 1,200 deaths, mainly civilians – the normalization of relations “at the expense of the Palestinian cause.” Hamas refuses to formally recognize Israel, although it has suggested it would do so de facto within the framework of a peace agreement.

Blinken, who will culminate his regional tour in Egypt, wants to prevent Israel from seeking recognition from more Arab countries by overlooking the Palestinian issue, an approach that the Israeli prime minister boasted about just half a month before the attack. ”For years it was rejected by the so-called experts; Well, they were wrong,” Benjamin Netanyahu said before the United Nations General Assembly.

Joe Biden's Administration is betting, on the other hand, that Israel generates a sincere path towards peace – impossible to imagine with the current Government coalition – that convinces various Arab countries not only to establish diplomatic relations, but also to lend a helping hand. , one way or another, when the war is over and they are required for the unpopular role of getting involved in a Gaza in rubble while the Israeli army carries out whatever raids it deems necessary. “Many countries in the region are really prepared to invest in different ways, when the conflict in Gaza ends, in its reconstruction, in its security, supporting the Palestinians to govern themselves… But it is essential for them that there is also a clear path for the fulfillment of Palestinian political rights,” Blinken highlighted.

The Secretary of State has also indicated that the hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinian civilians must be able to “return to their homes as soon as conditions allow,” and has announced, without detailing it, “an agreement with the UN to evaluate” how to do so. . Two-thirds of Gaza's buildings are damaged and thousands of them completely destroyed. He has also insisted that civilians in the Strip “should not be pressured to leave Gaza,” as Israeli ministers openly advocate for reestablishing Jewish settlements there evacuated in 2005 by order of then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Blinken's words conveyed the feeling that, as the 100 days of war approach, Netanyahu now has to decide which path to take. At the press conference, he dodged a question about whether he had convinced him to support the creation of a Palestinian state. The meeting between the two was “tense,” according to national television channel 12. The prime minister's office did not release a summary, as is customary, pointing to disagreements. The head of US diplomacy reiterated to his interlocutor the need to avoid more civilian deaths and to “protect civilian infrastructure in Gaza,” according to his spokesperson, Matthew Miller.

Secret channel for dialogue with Netanyahu

For weeks, Netanyahu has maintained a secret channel of dialogue with the White House to revitalize negotiations with Riyadh, which runs the United States, according to Israeli television channel 12. It would represent a notable personal victory for the Israeli prime minister at a time of serious political weakness, questioned by his previous policy towards Gaza and sinking in the polls. In addition, last week the Supreme Court annulled a key law of its controversial judicial reform, which divided the country for eight months and generated the largest demonstrations in its 75-year history. The broad coalition Executive formed for the war is showing more and more signs of exhaustion.

Nor does Netanyahu help the course of the campaign in Gaza, which continues to fail to achieve its main objectives, despite the immense destruction (with a rate of bombings unprecedented in almost eight decades) and the humanitarian crisis it is leaving: almost the entire population is displaced and Israel only allows limited supplies after completely blocking access to water, food, fuel and electricity. The more than 23,000 dead Gazans (126 in the last 24 hours; almost double the previous day) represent 1% of the population and are mostly minors and women.

Palestinian militias still hold, however, 132 hostages in Gaza, at least 25 of them lifeless. The hundred returned were negotiated, with several failed military rescue attempts. Israel has also not managed to oust the main leaders of Hamas, but it does mourn this Tuesday the loss of nine soldiers, in one of the deadliest days since it launched its ground invasion at the end of October.

two speeches

These days, Israeli leaders act in the way they accused the historic Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat, who died in 2004, of doing: with a conciliatory speech in English, facing the international community, and another, more incendiary one, in their own language. . Netanyahu continues to promise his compatriots in Hebrew the complete eradication of Hamas in a war that will last as long as necessary, without giving in to international pressure. But he has turned to two American media outlets to have his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, and the army's chief spokesman, Daniel Hagari, announce just before Blinken's arrival the move to a third phase of the war, more focused on the center. and the south of the Strip (where the displaced are concentrated) and with less intensity and troops.

“We have been hearing for three months about the destruction, defeat, eradication of Hamas. Unfortunately, none of this reflects reality. […] Netanyahu has created expectations that no one can meet and, in doing so, he has condemned us to an endless war,” the newspaper's political commentator wrote on Tuesday. Yediot Aharonot, Nahum Barnea.

On Sunday, Israel dismantled the armed wing of Hamas in the devastated north of the Strip. The army has already been reducing the intensity of its attacks in recent weeks and has demobilized tens of thousands of reservists. The greatest concern is the contagion to Lebanon, where the trickle of selective assassinations of medium-sized commanders of the Hezbollah militia increases, with which it maintains measured daily confrontations. In particular, since the death a week ago of Hamas' number two, Saleh al Aruri, widely attribute
d to Israel, in one of Hezbollah's strongholds in Beirut.

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