Press
The “swing states” are crucial for the outcome of the US election. Trump is currently ahead in six out of seven of the contested states – sometimes by double-digit percentages.
Washington – Former US President Donald Trump and the incumbent president Joe Biden occur at the US election 2024 against each other again. State-level polls suggest a close neck-and-neck race. But a closer analysis of the US states shows that Trump currently has a clear lead in the contested “swing states”.
Critical situation for Biden: Trump leads in crucial swing states
Most recently, Biden spoke in a survey by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of NBC News a lead of nine percentage points over Trump. The opinion research institute surveyed those people who had already taken part in the 2020 presidential elections and the 2022 midterm elections. A survey by the renowned survey institute Five Thirty Eight ABC News However, Trump saw Trump with 41.7 percent ahead of Biden, who only got 40.9 percent of the vote (as of April 27, 2024).
Things will be particularly critical for Joe Biden in the “swing states”, such as one Survey by Bloomberg and Morning Consult shows: Accordingly, the Republican is ahead in six of the important states by an average of six percentage points. Swing states are those US states that are not clearly Republican or Democratic dominated. Accordingly, the parties there are particularly fighting for the favor of voters. For this survey, the pollsters surveyed 4,969 registered voters in the seven swing states online between April 8 and 15.
US election 2024: This is how Biden is currently doing in the seven swing states
Trump's lead
US state | Trump poll results | Poll results Biden | Trump's lead | Electors |
Arizona | 49 percent | 42 percent | 7 percent | 11 |
Georgia | 49 percent | 43 percent | 6 percent | 16 |
Nevada | 51 percent | 43 percent | 8 percent | 6 |
North Carolina | 51 percent | 41 percent | 10 percent | 16 |
Pennsylvania | 47 percent | 46 percent | 1 percent | 19 |
Wisconsin | 48 percent | 44 percent | 4 percent | 10 |
All states | 49 percent | 43 percent | 6 percent |
Biden lead
US state | Trump poll results | Poll results Biden | Biden lead | Electors |
Michigan | 45 percent | 47 percent | 2 percent | 15 |
Source: Bloomberg News, Morning Consult (survey period April 8-15, 2024)
Surveys always represent snapshots. In addition, social desirability often plays a role in the respondents' expression of opinion – the survey trends can therefore deviate from the actual election results, as shown, for example, by the 2016 US election and previous forecasts. The surveys themselves have a certain statistical uncertainty, the so-called margin of error. This was with the Bloomberg-Poll at one percentage point. The actual result could vary up or down by this range.
Biden's Achilles heel in the US election: inflation and immigration
Citizens in the USA do not elect the president directly, but rather through the so-called Electoral College, consisting of 538 voters. Majority voting – in contrast to proportional representation in Germany – leads to the “all or nothing” principle: whoever wins a state receives all of the electoral votes. For example, Donald Trump won the US election in 2016 even though he received fewer votes nationwide than Hillary Clinton.
It would be “almost impossible to imagine a Biden victory without Wisconsin, Michigan and especially Pennsylvania, states that used to be reliably Democratic,” Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham, told US magazine Newsweek. Inflation and immigration are Biden's Achilles heel, according to the professor. Biden may soon take tougher immigration measures, “but paradoxically Republicans are blocking them in Congress because they know it would hurt their election chances,” Phelps continued.
The arms package that has now been passed for Ukraine could also further boost US inflation, as the money will mainly go to US arms manufacturers, according to the expert. Also the Gaza-War is increasingly becoming a problem for Biden. In the primary elections in Michigan, around 100,000 Democratic voters refused to vote for the president in protest against the US government's Middle East policy. The Democrats could lose the votes of the Muslim electorate in the USA. Trump has so far reserved a clear position on Israel. However, the Republican's numerous legal problems could throw a spanner in the works.
#Biden #massive #problems #important #states