Bernardo Arévalo and the challenge of tearing down the wall of the “corrupt pact” in Guatemala

Bernardo Arévalo assumed the presidency of Guatemala on Sunday after an agonizing obstacle course that almost frustrated the investiture. The leader of the Semilla Movement, a progressive sociologist expert in conflict resolution, won the elections last August and over the last five months has repeatedly faced attempts by a sector of the judiciary to blow up the transition. The Public Ministry, headed by Consuelo Porras, an official sanctioned in 2022 by the United States Department of State for corruption, tried unsuccessfully to disqualify her training and even annul the electoral process. What was seen on Sunday in the Congress of the Central American country, with the maneuver of a group of deputies that delayed the investiture ceremony for nine hours, was the umpteenth example of a network of powers that promises to do everything possible to hinder the mandate of the new president, who in recent weeks denounced an attempted coup d'état.

This plot is known in Guatemala as the “corrupt pact,” an agreement between political, economic and judicial sectors that prospered during the periods of Jimmy Morales and Alejandro Giammattei, whose government was marked by profound institutional deterioration. The fight against corruption is the key to everything. It was for Arévalo's unexpected triumph, in the wake of growing social fatigue that arose in the student protests of 2015. And it is now for the government program and its main obstacles.

“The first obstacle that the president faces is a Public Ministry that tried to prevent him from taking office and will probably now try to limit the ability to govern,” says Ricardo Sáenz de Tejada, political scientist and professor at the School of History, Anthropology and Archeology of the University of San Carlos of Guatemala. Arévalo himself acknowledged upon taking office that he will face “monumental challenges” to eradicate corrupt practices. One of his first actions, according to what he announced weeks ago, will be precisely to demand the resignation of Consuelo Porras, although in all likelihood he will have to deal with the resistance of the attorney general. “As long as the Public Ministry continues to be in the hands of illicit networks, there is a serious challenge,” continues Sáenz de Tejada. But the Administration of justice is only one of the fronts related to corruption. There is another that has to do with economic management, a crucial area for one of the central goals of the president, who has proposed to deepen the fight against poverty, which affects 55% of the population.

According to the political scientist, this is about business, questioned for its transparency and even legality, which has already left Giammattei's Executive compromised. “That includes the container terminal in one of the Pacific ports, oil concessions and roads that the Government is going to have to address.” Added to this are other structural challenges such as infrastructure, the health system, education and the delays accumulated during the covid-19 pandemic, the problems of rural schools and security, after a mandate that has also been characterized by the persecution of opponents, starting with justice officials dedicated to the fight against corruption.

However, in the opinion of Marielos Chang, political scientist and co-founder of the organization specialized in transparency Red Ciudadana, “we are at the weakest moment of the dominant political coalition, which had co-opted the most important institutions in the country, from the Executive to the Presidency of the Legislative or the Public Ministry.” “If we were in January 2023 and you told me that Bernardo Arévalo and Samuel Pérez were going to be, respectively, presidents of the Republic and of Congress, no one would have believed it,” Chang continues. “That doesn't mean they are defeated, but they are very weakened.” Even the poisoned session of the constitution of Congress ended in the background, regardless of the Show of a sector of legislators, with a positive balance for the Semilla Movement, which has 23 seats out of 160. “One of Arévalo's challenges is, first of all, to fulfill his campaign promise to fight corruption, but with the presidency Congress can make a package of reforms that can reduce these holes and black holes. We didn't know that a few weeks ago either, what we envisioned was a Congress completely hostile to the president,” he reasons.

If there is room for optimism, for political analyst Raquel Zelaya, Arévalo “knows that she will have to moderate the overexpectation” generated. “He has spoken about the fight against corruption and his areas of action have to begin by making the Executive transparent. You can do that, no nepotism or favors or poorly made contracts. And accountability,” says Zelaya, president of the think tank Association for Research and Social Studies (ASIES). In short, in his opinion the president has to start by leading by example and, in the meantime, try to reach agreements, since legislative activity is one of his main challenges.

In Arévalo's inauguration there were two decisive actors who protected the transition and, ultimately, prevented the relay from getting bogged down. The indigenous peoples of Guatemala exerted pressure during more than 100 days of resistance, which began on October 2 at the hands of the authorities of the 48 cantons of Totonicapán. This powerful indigenous organization, observes Marielos Chang, is today “a new actor with power that is going to be an important force, but not necessarily an ally of Arévalo,” which represents another challenge for the president. The second actor is the so-called international community, which with the United States, the European Union and Latin American governments such as that of the Colombian Gustavo Petro or the Chilean Gabriel Boric at the helm, deployed a very broad block of support for Arévalo. His role will be decisive during the mandate as it was in the long transition to prevent the forces of the “corrupt pact” from frustrating the profound change that more than 60% of Guatemalan voters support.

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