Belarus Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shakes Belarus’s authoritarian Lukashenko, says researcher says it will not affect Sunday

In Belarus will be held on Sunday “Referendum” on constitutional changes. The change removes the current references to nuclear non-proliferation and neutrality in Belarus, allowing Russian troops to remain in the country permanently.

On Thursday, Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine, which also involved Russian troops left behind by Belarus after the military exercises. Russia also attacked Ukraine across the Belarusian border.

Amendments to the constitution also confirm the leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko power and give him prosecution.

Amendment to the law will be accepted, estimates a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Ryhor Nizhnikau from the beginning of the week before the Russian invasion. Lukashenko is an authoritarian ruler, so there is little other option.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine will not change the situation in the referendum, Nizhnikau told HS on Saturday. The result of the vote has been written in advance, but Lukashenko’s position is being shaken by the attack.

“It makes [Lukašenkasta] weaker because people do not want or support war in Ukraine. ”

“The legitimacy of his administration, even de facto legitimacy, diminishes in the eyes of his own citizens. They do not think he is independent of Moscow. ”

According to Nizhnikau, those Belarusians who still believed that Lukashenko would bring stability to the country are scared and no longer trust him.

According to Nizhnikau, the vote is of little interest to Belarusians at the moment, as hostilities in Ukraine are considered much more significant.

Russian the attack came as a surprise to the leaders of the countries of the former Soviet Union, and no one believed it was really going to happen, Nizhnikau estimates.

“It changes completely status quoa territory, its written and unwritten rules. That makes Russia an unpredictable player. ”

Nizhnikau believes Lukashenko’s confidence in Putin has faltered. Under Western sanctions and non-recognition of the Belarussian regime, Lukashenko has relied on the East, but now he can no longer trust Putin and that Putin needs him.

Opposition leader in exile in Belarus Svyatlana Tsihanouskaya Even before the Russian attack, Lukashenko told AFP that he felt threatened by the presence of Russian troops.

“He is weak and may think that one day, when the Kremlin no longer needs him, they will get rid of him.”

Belarus involvement in the Russian invasion further weakens the image of the Lukashenko regime in the West and his continued plans to stay in power.

“There was a lot of talk in the West about Lukashenko being a dummy in Moscow. Now it is considered a fact. If we have to talk to Lukashenko, we have to talk to Moscow. ”

Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg called on Belarus to allow the attack on Friday. Many states have threatened Belarus with additional sanctions.

In Belarus there were 81 nuclear warheads at the time of the break-up of the Soviet Union. However, it has not had nuclear weapons since 1996 and is not permitted by the current constitution.

Last year, however, Lukashenko offered Putin the opportunity to deploy Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. Nizhnikau does not believe in the deployment of nuclear weapons in the country even after the attack and the constitutional amendment, although he said the situation has become more difficult to predict.

“I don’t think the Russians would still make sense. But it only depends on Putin’s decision, and we can no longer rely on him to do a cost-benefit analysis. He is too emotional and driven by absurd revenge. ”

Nizhnikau estimates that Russian troops will remain in Belarus at least as long as Russia’s hostilities in Ukraine continue – that is, until Putin has achieved his goal. If Putin achieves his goal, Belarus will be next on the list.