KThe NATO summit in Vilnius is just under four weeks away. The defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Friday was the last meeting at ministerial level to prepare for the upcoming decisions. In the meantime, the ambassadors in Brussels will continue to wrestle with wording. All in all, however, it is already becoming apparent what diplomats like to call the “landing zone”: what the 31 heads of state and government will agree on. As always in the Alliance, this requires consensus.
The most sensitive issue concerns the future of Ukraine. There will be no invitation to join, as recently demanded by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, no matter how hard the states on the alliance’s eastern flank may push. A promise that the country will be admitted immediately after the end of the war cannot be made with the United States either.
Instead, in addition to a support package for non-lethal aid (to which the alliance is limited), there should be political signals of rapprochement. This concerns, on the one hand, the upgrading of the previous NATO-Ukraine Commission to a Council in which Euro-Atlantic security issues should also be discussed on an equal footing. The North Atlantic Council has now formally decided to do so after Lithuania gave up its opposition. The summit host wanted to do more for Kyiv but was isolated.
The two percent mark becomes the lower limit
On the other hand, the Ukraine should be signaled that they will not need a Membership Action Plan, or MAP for short, if they join. “There are increasing signs that everyone can agree on this,” said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on Friday. North Macedonia, for example, was recently prepared for its admission with such plans, which define military and political reforms. Of course, they are not mandatory, and they were never discussed for Finland and Sweden.
When NATO promised Ukraine membership in 2008, Germany and France prevented the country from getting a MAP – so as not to provoke Russia. At the time, it was argued that a MAP would create some sort of moral, if not legal, obligation to alliance defense. In this respect, it should not have been difficult for US President Joe Biden to give up this requirement. Zelenskyj, on the other hand, could present it as a success. The Ukrainian President is expected to come to Vilnius and take part in a symbolic first session of the NATO-Ukraine Council. It is still unclear whether the country will also receive security promises. In any case, this is a matter for individual states, not for the Alliance.
Consensus is also emerging on the second hot topic – defense spending. The member states will declare the previously “desired” target of spending two percent of their economic power on this as binding – as a new lower limit (“floor”). The allies have noticed that Germany is already messing about with the new security strategy; it is sometimes commented on with raised eyebrows.
New defense plans for Alliance territory
However, the Bundeswehr will have enough money available over the next four years with the special fund to reach the two percent – that’s exactly what the additional 100 billion euros were calculated for. It’s just a matter of spending them quickly, too. The real problem will only arise in 2028, when the defense budget would suddenly have to increase by 20 billion euros.
#NATO #summit #Consensus #Ukraine #emerging