There is less and less for the CNMC to announce its resolution regarding BBVA OPA on Sabadell, something that Carlos Torres himself expects to happen in the next few days. Beyond the conditions that may be put into the merger or not, the market has been positioned for some time and, at the moment, There is no cousin for Sabadell’s shareholder.
Both companies celebrate their respective General Shareholders’ meetings this Thursday and Friday, where the renovations of positions and dividends and final repurchases will be voted on account of 2024, although they have already been anticipated in the presentations of results of 2024.
In this stock market, both signatures have shown a great strength in these last weeks and months and reach this key moment for their future quoting in 2010 maximums After revaluing a 48% in the case of Sabadell and a 42% in BBVA, which It was not worth so much in stock market since 2008.
The current context in which the increase in defense expenditure by the EU and the German stimuli package can be a new bullish risk for inflation has reduced the forecasts that the ECB can accelerate its type cutting cycle, something good for the bank, which leads the increases of this course.
The progress of one and the other since almost a year ago the offer was definitively launched has been modulating the premium that, if selling, Sabadell’s shareholder would obtain and now that now It is negative even with the promised dividend of 0.29 euros per share they will receive in cash. In this sense, it is about the moment in which they will have to re -modify the exchange equation after both entities make their respective disbursements this spring.
Likewise, the current price balance, beyond the conditions that set competition to carry out the merger, makes it difficult for Sabadell’s shareholder to see some attraction in selling its title and that is why many investors and analysts They are waiting for BBVA to improve their offer Good with a better exchange of actions, either with a metal part.
In this sense, the advances in the stock market have been much larger than the market expected when the course began after more than 20% had revalued during the past year. This exercise already accumulates an increase of more than 40%, leaving all companies quoting above their average valuations.
“We believe that the risk for the sector derived from the type drop stage is limited since they have reduced their sensitivity to them winning in volumes,” they explain in Barclays. “Maybe they will have to sacrifice some of the excess liquidity they maintain,” they add. “The key, therefore, will be to see if the lower types really allow sufficient volume growth and if they are able to maintain the reduction of the cost of deposits while competing for market share,” they conclude.
As for the recommendation, Both BBVA and Sabadell receive a purchase council On the part of the consensus, like Santander. For their part, experts suggest that in Unicaja, Bankinter and Caixabank it is best to keep the wallet actions if they already have.
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