MPS, this is why the government will not sell any more shares of Monte
These are once again euphoric days for the banking world, which is growing Bag achieving even unexpected results. The reason? You bet on riskwith the hypotheses that continue to circulate involving Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Unicredit, BancoBpm, Bbper. At the center of everything is MPS, a bank that has changed its skin after a very long journey through the desert. Investors are betting that the government is ready to put at least a 10% stake on the market, thus dropping below 30% and starting the definitive exit from Monte.
However, there is one detail that should not be missed. In case the Mef were to dilute further, it would find itself in an awkward position. He would hold 30% of the capital of a bank that has returned to the spotlight, but in a hypothetical meeting 40% of the shares would be enough to send the executive into the minority. A dangerous slope. Would it not then be better to start outlining the future of the bank by hypothesizing a strategic alliance which however takes into account the new dimensions of the credit institution, the fact that it has returned to distribute dividends and which was reorganized after Luigi's work Lovaglio?
The suitors are always the same, also because the panorama does not offer many other alternatives. Unicredit he had the chance to take over Monte with a dowry, but the deal fell through. Today the dossier could also be reopened – even if Andrea Orcel he should explain to the shareholders why he chose not to take it for free and to buy it by paying – as long as a Mps the right value is recognized. According to analysts, there is room to grow reaching a value between 7 and 7.5 billion euros (today we are at 4.7), with an increase of 50%.
The most accredited hypotheses, however, remain those with Bper and with BancoBpm. Let's start from the first: Carlo Cimbri – in a press conference that has already gone down in history – declared that he was ready to do anything to defend the credit institution and its participation in the Banca Popolare di Sondrioalso citing Mario Draghi (“believe me, it will be enough”) and his bazooka speech. At the moment, the merger between Bper And Mps it would make sense both in terms of defense – because it would increase the volume of fire of an institution that would be very strong especially in Northern Italy – and in terms of rationalization of resources and costs.
The alternative is BancoBpm. A merger would certainly have a higher ratio, because it would finally create the famous third pole and make the Italian banking universe more solid and more ready to withstand any challenge. But there is a huge question mark, which is linked to the firm “no”. Giuseppe Castagna he always responded to anyone who asked him if there was room for a merger. “I have other things to do” he said recently, making it clear that his objective at the moment is to remunerate those shareholders who have recently renewed their trust in him.
And someone who knows the dossier well whispered: “To make the mergers you need months of work, if you start with these intentions it will be difficult to complete the marriage between Bank And Mps”. In fact, the complex work of integration between Intesa Sanpaolo And Ubiwho had already solved the Antitrust problems by selling branches to Bper, represents a warning for managers: doing mergers doesn't just mean taking two banks and merging them, it means finding interactions, savings, synergies. Mechanisms that are anything but simple.
It should not be forgotten, however, that precisely due to the composition of the shareholder structure of Mps, the political matrix not only cannot be overlooked, but – on the contrary – it will be decisive. And so the historical proximity of Carlo Cimbri to the world of Coop and in “red” Emilia (despite the manager having long since adopted an equidistant approach from a true finance hub) it could represent an obstacle in the operation between Bper and MPS. Siena, which has now become a fiefdom of the League, could therefore more easily marry with another credit institution historically close to the CarroccioMeaning what BancoBpm.
However, there are two other themes that should not be overlooked. The first is governance, the second is “historical”. As for management, the live torpedoing of Piero Luigi Montani from Cimbri clarifies once more that for the post of CEO of Bper there will be a new face. Someone confirmed the indiscretion collected by Affaritaliani.it in December according to which he would be in pole position Gianni Franco Popecurrent president of two “offshoots” of Bper come Carige And Cesare Ponti Bankadvisor to the former board Banca Popolare dell'Emilia-Romagna and with a long history at Unicredit where he was also general manager. Also Luigi Lovaglio he has a long history in the bank led by Orcel where, together with Alessandro Profumo And Roberto Nicastrowas the “dominus” of Pekao in Poland.
In Bpm bench Castagna is very attached to his role and would have difficulty digesting his possible downgrading to favor the merger with Mps. But the impression is that Lovaglio, who has so far acted like a man on a mission, has no intention of putting his foot down. He would consider his mandate concluded once the integration with another bank is completed, be it Bper or BancoBpm. So it's very likely that there wouldn't be an infighting trying to find the new CEO.
However, there is a second fundamental theme: the brand Mps, now that it has been brought back to life and has forcefully returned to the scene, it cannot be dispelled. This is why we tend to hope for a merger with Bank or with Bper, because there would be the possibility of maintaining the identity of the bank. It is not so much a question of “Sieneseness”, but rather of a heritage that will turn 552 years old in the next few weeks and which must be kept alive in Tuscany but not only. Much of the future of the bank will depend on the protection of the brand and its correct positioning. Either you find an evocative, new name that tells the story of the new group, or you can't ignore it Monte dei Paschi di Siena and its centuries-old history.
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