01/17/2024 – 11:50
International risk aversion contaminates the Ibovespa this Wednesday, 17th, after the index on Tuesday, 16th, had already felt the external defensive climate due to doubts regarding expectations of interest cuts in the United States and Europe. This Wednesday, this fear is reinforced due to disappointing indicators from China and after the stronger than expected rise in US retail sales.
“There is a clear slowdown in China and the government continues to inject liquidity, but this does not seem to be having the desired effect. The tendency is that Chinese stimulus to the economy should continue, it may be that at some point it will have an impact”, says Lucca Ramos, variable income specialist at One Investimentos.
At the opening, the Ibovespa was at 129,293.35 points, but then weakened. “We tried to recover a little from the drop, but retail sales in the United States showed greater growth and instantly there was a considerable change in bets on the CME platform for the beginning of interest cuts in March”, describes Sidney Lima, an analyst at Ouro Preto Investimentos, when refer to the decline in estimates for the start of a decline in interest rates in the third month of this year.
As Lima adds, the VIX, the fear index, which rose 1.50% earlier, increased to 2.62%, reflecting US retail data. Another point, highlights the Ouro Preto analyst, are the conditions in China that still cause concern, given the prospects for a slowdown.
US retail sales rose 0.6% in December, compared to a forecast of 0.4%, preliminary and moderately raising doubts about when the process of lowering US interest rates will begin. Interest on US bond yields accelerated the rise.
In addition to the stock markets, commodities also fall, weighing on the sector's shares on B3. Oil falls close to 2.00%, while iron ore closed down 0.75%, in Dalian, China. There, the country reported GDP growth of 5.2% in 2023, a greater than expected increase in industrial production in December, in addition to disappointing retail sales and a decline in housing sales last year.
Regarding the numbers, Gustavo Cruz, strategist at RB Investimentos, says that the results deserve different readings: one for the short term and the other for the medium and long term. The short term, he says, is that the economy grew last year, exceeding the government's 5% target. Despite the growth, the feeling is that China will grow less and may announce a lower target in March. “The feeling is a little more negative”, he assesses in a comment.
In the long term, he says, the big issue is in relation to the population, which indicates that it is shrinking, and there is an effort by the government to reverse this trend. This, he analyzes, could slightly slow down estimates for the Asian giant's consumption. For now, Cruz, from RB, believes that the results of the Chinese data do not cause much concern for Brazil, because, according to him, what really matters is that China is already at a very high level of growth and Brazil has unlocked barriers commercial and health issues with the country.
Yesterday, the Bovespa Index closed with a devaluation of 1.69%, at 129,294.04 points, with only one share rising, out of a total of 87.
At 11:30 am, the Ibovespa fell 0.36%, to 128,829.73 points, compared to a low of 128,635.25 points (-0.51%), on the day options on the index expired. Vale fell 1.42%, but the list of biggest falls was made up of securities linked to the oil sector, which lost more than 2.00%, such as 3R Petroleum (-3.27%). Petrobras fell 0.26% (PN) and -0.63% (ON).
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