By Carlo Platella
Third pole position in as many qualifying sessions for Max Verstappen, but the first position achieved in Melbourne was the least predictable of this 2024. Friday's tests had seen the Ferraris fast and balanced, the exact opposite of the dissatisfaction emerging from the Red environment Bull. Saturday overturned hierarchies, with the RB20 preceding the Red by just under 3 tenths. However, the gap, although perfectly on average, matures differently compared to the first two seasonal qualifications.
The key moment
At Albert Park the great protagonists are Carlos Sainz and Max Verstappen. The Spaniard from Ferrari conquers the front row two weeks after the operation for appendicitis, of which he is still suffering the physical effects. In interviews Sainz says he is confident that he is in optimal physical condition he could have equaled the pole time by Verstappen, once again simply superb. The greatness of the Dutchman lies in making what in reality isn't seem ordinary, each time putting his best effort into enhancing the car's excellent potential.
The world champion made the decisive push in Q3, when he improved by 4 and a half tenths compared to his Q2 time, one more than his teammate. In the transition from the third to the second session, both Red Bulls lowered their times by over 3 tenths, in line with what Lando Norris expressed, an excellent fourth with the McLaren. The anomaly emerges instead from Ferrari's performance. In Q3 Sainz is unable to go beyond his best time in Q2, while Leclerc actually worsens by a tenth. The lack of pole position, however, cannot be explained by the lack of performance leap at the decisive moment, which on the contrary is a consequence of the evolution from Friday to Saturday at car and track level.
Red Bull recovery
The world champions had not started the Australian weekend in the best way. In free practice Verstappen complained about the understeer in the final sector, but showed calm and awareness about where to work during the night. Among the changes made, the option for stands out the rear wing is flatter used in Saudi Arabia, only partially compensated by the transition to a more loaded beam-wing. The RB20s thus find precious km/h on the straight, especially in the extension of the second sector, misleading Leclerc who attributes the advantage to the more advanced engine mapping. In Melbourne the world champion is actually forced to fit a new power unit, but it is unlikely that this is responsible for such a clear gain in performance.
Looking back over his weekend, Verstappen continues to define it as a difficult weekend, especially in understanding the Pirelli tires on the Australian track. The Dutchman's words reinforce the picture in which temperatures are what guide the qualification above all and track conditions. In fact, at the beginning of Q1 the world champion continues to complain on the radio about understeer, and then has “like a shot” in Q3, when the track becomes rubbery and the temperatures drop by a couple of degrees. Indicative is how Verstappen manages to be incisive even in the third sector, where on Friday Ferrari made the difference, managing to get there with the tires still alive.
Ferrari is lost
After the first day of testing Leclerc was optimistic to have a better chance of competing for pole position compared to the first two events. The judgment did not derive so much from the chronometric results, but rather from the sensations and confidence in the car. On Saturday, however, the harmony with the SF-24 slowly began to disappear, starting in FP3 and then worsening during qualifying.
It is difficult to establish how much of Ferrari's step back can be traced back to flaws in the setup and how much to the evolution of the track, which by offering ever more grip shifts the balance towards the rear. The SF-24 loses front end precision seen on Friday and much appreciated by the Monegasque, prompting him to ask for an increase of 5 clicks in the incidence of the front wing to regain confidence. The adjustment, however, has the effect of worsening the situation, making the Ferrari very difficult to drive in Q3, with jumps from understeer to oversteer. On the decisive lap Leclerc thus made some mistakes, not going beyond 5th place on the grid.
As already seen on other occasions, Carlos Sainz instead manages to enhance the car when the behavior shifts from oversteer to understeer, an evolution that occurred in Melbourne. The Spaniard believes there was potential to match the pole position time, which did not materialize due to his physical condition. However, Sainz also admits that he was surprised by the car on a couple of occasions during the decisive lap, a sign of a balance that was not as impeccable as on Friday.
The qualification of others
Before the pursuers in Melbourne it is McLaren, which maximizes the potential of the current MCL38, awaiting the major updates expected in May. Lando Norris is 4th ahead of Leclerc's Ferrari, while Piastri is 6th in front of the home crowd. At Aston Martin, however, Fernando Alonso's usual shot is missing, punished for the mistake made when exiting Turn 7.
The best of Mercedes it is seventh with George Russell, who in Q2 is just half a tenth faster than Lewis Hamilton, who is instead eliminated. The multiple British champion continues to suffer more from the defects of the W15, emphasizing the car's problems. When describing Saturday, Hamilton describes a day very similar to Friday, with a car in great shape in the morning session, only to become undriveable in the afternoon.
The Silver Arrows confirm the problem of too narrow an operating window, with the car's potential emerging only in a precise range of conditions. In the 2023 edition Mercedes managed to hit the magic window, placing itself on the front row with Russell alongside Verstappen. In 2024 Russell himself improves last season's time by just 3 tenths, highlighting all the unpredictability of the W15. Opposite speech instead at home Racing Bulls, eighth with Tsunoda at the wheel of a car 1.2 seconds faster than the previous one. In Faenza there is regret for not being able to respond with Daniel Ricciardo, eliminated in Q1 after exceeding the limits of the track.
Towards the race
The Grand Prix promises to be particularly strategic, thanks to the softer compounds brought by Pirelli. One of the keys will be graining management on the front wheels, a practice in which Red Bull did not appear excellent in testing. From this perspective, the choice to fit the flatter rear wing does not help the Milton Keynes team. However, the evolution of the track will reduce the level of wear compared to the test sessions, but the world champions show less confidence compared to the first two rounds, opening a glimmer of hope for Sainz and Ferrari.
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