The 2024 YR4 asteroiddiscovered in December 2024, has caught the attention of the scientific community for its risk of impact with the land, estimated at 3.1% for December 27, 2032. Although it may seem a low figure, this probability is sufficient For agencies such as POT and the European Space Agency (That) keep it under constant observation.
But, What really means a 3% probability? To put it in perspective, there are many other everyday situations or extraordinary events that share a similar risk.
Events with a 3% probability
The exclusivity of elite universities as Harvard either Stanford It is reflected in your Acceptance ratethat is around the 3% and the 4%. This means that, of every 100 students who present their application, only three manage to be admitted. Although it is a low number, it is still attainable for those with exceptional academic preparation.
A mathematical example that illustrates this probability is two -sided dice launch. The possibility that both show a six at the same time is 2.78%a percentage very close to 3%. These types of events, although rare, are not impossible and can occur with relative regularity in gambling.
In it Professional footballscoring three goals in the same game, known as a ‘hat-trick’it is an achievement reserved for the best strikers. The probability that this happens varies according to the player and the level of the competition, but in first -level European leagues, such as LaLiga wave Premier Leagueit is estimated between the 3% and the 5%.
From the medical point of view, The possibility that a natural pregnancy results in fraternal twins ranges between 1% and 3%depending on factors such as the genetics and age of the mother. Despite being a less common phenomenon than unique pregnancies, the rate remains significant in certain population groups.
On the other hand, the prevalence of left -handed people In the world it is from approximately 10%although some studies have indicated that, in certain populations and ethnic groups, the proportion It can be as low as 3%. This data demonstrates how the distribution of certain human characteristics can vary according to the environment and genetics.
Is a low irrigation really 3%?
In general terms, 3% probability can be interpreted in different ways. In a lottery, it is a hopeful number; In a catastrophe, it is an alarm signal. Therefore, although the impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4 It is still unlikely, scientists do not rule it out and continue to evaluate their career with precision.
In the coming months, new calculations and observations will determine whether the Earth must be prepared for a possible impact or if, as in Most casesthe asteroid will pass without consequences.
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