To the conclude a six-year termthe Presidents leave assets and liabilities that can be converted into the strengths or in future ones economical crisis of the following Constitutional period.
Among the assets left by the administration of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is today Mexico is the 12th economic power in the world.
While it is true that the management of the Pandemic of the Covid-19 was a disasterwhich led us to the worst economic and health crisis of the last 90 years and the loss of 13 million jobsexpressed thus by the then Secretary of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), it is also true that in the last 4 yearshe average annual growth has been 3.9%which has compensated for the situation.
For the above, with AMLOhe average annual growth has been of the 1%compared to 2% for Enrique Peña Nieto, 1.4% for Felipe Calderón, 1.9% for Vicente Fox and 3.6% for Ernesto Zedillo.
That means With López Obrador we have had the worst six-year termin economic termsfrom Miguel de la Madrid Hurtado.
However, despite the lack of growth, other countries managed their economies worse, allowing us to overtake Spain and Australia.
Exchange rateWe still have one of the strongest currencies in the world. Today the exchange rate is $18.1 per dollar, which means that over the course of this six-year term the exchange rate strengthened by 11%, we went from $20.4 to $18.1 per dollar, while under Enrique Peña Nieto our currency depreciated by 50% and under Felipe Calderón it depreciated by 21%.
International reservesToday we have the highest international reserves in history at 220 billion dollars, an increase of 27% over the six-year term, compared to the 7% growth under Enrique Peña Nieto and 135% under Felipe Calderón.
Having solid international reserves allows us to cope with international economic crises, which involve adjustments in the supply and demand of foreign currency.
However, in both cases (TC and International Reserves), the credit goes not to the Federal Government, but to the Bank of Mexico, which has been an autonomous body since April 1994 and has a target interest rate of 11%, compared to 5.25% in the United States, which makes us an attractive country for investment.
World TradeWe are the main global trading partner of the United States (the largest economy in the world), with trade of 345 billion dollars between January and May 2024, this is 9% more than trade with Canada and 54% more than with China.
Regarding the Passives that this administration leaves behind, the main one will be the Constitutional reformswhich will surely be approved before the end of this six-year term, leaving the consequences (negative or positive) to the new President.
Another risk factor is the possible elimination of autonomous bodiesincluding the National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information and Protection of Personal Data (INAI), which has made it possible to know who is awarded contracts, the amounts and the evaluations for public works.
And finally, one of the great liabilities of this administration is the excessive level of public debt (internal and external), which stands at 16.5 billion pesos and which a single President, López Obrador, increased by 49%.
A high level of debt can put pressure on public finances, increase taxes and cause instability in the economy – just remember the crisis of December 1994.
Therefore, I ask you, dear reader: how will you remember López Obrador’s six-year term?
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