The historic victory of Sinn Fein raises a fundamental question: when will this party seek the referendum for the unification of the island of Ireland?, which has been its historical mission, putting the union of the United Kingdom at risk, but which also has implications for local politics and that of its neighbour, the Republic of Ireland.
In few places like Belfast, the capital of Northern Ireland, which has traditionally wanted to remain within the United Kingdom, there is so much division.
If you are born in a nationalist territory, you rarely cross over to the unionist side, where references to Queen Elizabeth II abound and UK flags fly.
And it is that, although there is currently political peace, due to the Belfast or Good Friday Peace Agreement, signed in 1998, the invisible borders of the communities remain as demarcated as in the painful and violent past.
Northern Ireland is a very complex conflict. Where nationalism and religion converge. The Republicans, mostly Catholic, want the island of Ireland to be one again, while the Unionists, mostly Protestant, want to be British.
And this has been the political tension in a hundred years of existence of this British region, which was created so that those who feel British can have their territory, but the truth is that they have to live with those who seek the unification of the island of Ireland.
The historic moment brought by the triumph of Sinn Fein, known as the political arm of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), for this region is like an earthquake that is felt throughout the country.
Because that party will seek to fulfill its historic promise: to achieve the unification of Ireland divided between the North, which belongs to the United Kingdom, and the Republic, which is within the European Union.
ideal political moment
Sinn Fein won 27 seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly, a major win indeed. But what actually happened is that the unionists, grouped in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), lost votes.
Official figures show that the DUP won 25 seats, only two less than Sinn Fein but enough to be the leader of the Executive.
‘The Guardian’ highlights that internal differences were key: “this latest success is due more to the internal disunity of unionism than to any new widespread adoption of republicanism or Irish unification”.
This is, however, a political situation unimaginable years ago. Sinn Fein’s current leaders, Michelle O’Neill and Mary Lou McDonald, have modernized and moderated a party that still struggles with its IRA-associated history.
While the DUP, which until hours ago was the largest and historically voted party in the region, attributed the fiasco in the elections that took power from them to internal divisions.
These differences between unionists are a product of Brexit. With the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union in 2020, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which are the same island, became a physical border.
To prevent the borders from fueling the causes that triggered the conflict, known as The Troubles, the Northern Ireland Protocol was created, which sets the border in the Irish Sea, but leaves Northern Ireland within the customs system and the Common Market. European.
What has caused, since then, that the shipment of food, for example, from any British city to Northern Ireland, the same country, is an export that has marked an increase in prices and scarcity. In the eyes of the Unionists, their province has already been partitioned from the rest of the UK.
Negotiations to form the Executive, the first difficulty
The tensions between the unionist and republican communities are also felt in Stormont, the Northern Ireland Assembly, an icon of the peace agreement, which has witnessed the constant crises that have left the region without a stable government in recent years. .
With the victory of Sinn Fein, probably the most complex task begins, which is to form the Executive, which must be a coalition between the unionists and nationalists. But the DUP is denied until the protocol is changed.
However, changing that protocol, created to sign Brexit, is not in the hands of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, no matter how many warnings he makes about breaching the divorce agreement.
It is a decision of the European Union to do so, but the block has already said, on repeated occasions, that Brexit has already been negotiated and signed, although there have been negotiations between Brussels and London, but little concrete progress has been made.
Both the European Union and the United Kingdom understand the difficulties facing Northern Ireland and now the additional ingredient of urgency to form an Executive is added.
The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, a minister in Johnson’s cabinet, urged the parties to put aside differences and form an Executive that can govern. No doubt he was speaking to the unionists.
Referendum for reunification, a matter of time
The reunification of Ireland has always been present. So much so that the mechanism for reunification was established in the peace agreement.
The victory of Sinn Fein is undoubtedly a historic moment that will encourage the nationalists to continue with their chimera of the unification of the island of Ireland, as soon as possible.
That referendum necessarily needs to have the approval of the central government in London. However, according to the BBC, only a third of voters would support holding this one.
It is not part of Sinn Fein’s immediate agenda, which wants to focus on attacking the cost of living crisis and showing that they can be a competent government because it also depends on this that they can win the elections in the Republic of Ireland.
But Northern Ireland party leader Michelle O’Neill said talks on reunifying the island of Ireland would continue.
The possibility of the separation of Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom, which could begin to materialize soon, raises questions about the stability and unity of the United Kingdom as a whole.
It is paradoxical that, during the Government of Boris Johnson, who signed the Brexit to keep the British essence united, the stability and unity of the country had never been so threatened.
While in Northern Ireland Sinn Fein begins a possible path to fulfill its historic mission, in Scotland, the nationalists are also seeking a second referendum on independence from the United Kingdom.
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