In 2023 there will be two electoral contests that to a large extent will set the starting tone for the presidential succession process in 2024. Today MORENA and her allies of the 4T They already have 22 governorships under their control and precisely the two campaigns prior to the start of the electoral process for the presidential election They are Coahuila and State of Mexico. Therefore, it is key for President López Obrador and for the succession project of the 4T, to hit this double in Coahuila and Edomex next Sunday, June 4.
This would not only put the numbers very favorable for the presidential candidacy of Morena (¾ parts of the won governorships of the entire country); Rather, as in baseball, these two electoral victories would mark “the moment” where even the President of the Republic himself has an enormous advantage for the candidacy that he promotes.
Winning 22 governorships is already an advantage, but winning Coahuila and Edomex, two states that the PRI For almost 100 years it would mark a “moment” of takeoff such as when a “clutch” batter hits a double, placing himself in scoring position and from there the team grows with a run-producing rally.
Today there are many voices who think that the presidential election is already defined for the 4T and that the PRIAN opposition has it “very uphill”; However, if both candidates Armando Guadiana Tijerina and Delfina Gomez were to consolidate the victory in Coahuila and Edomex respectively, the percentage of those who believe that “morena already won” will increase substantially even among voters who do not sympathize with the 4T; Thus, leaving the real chances of triumph of the PRIAN alliance greatly diminished and increasing Morena’s advantage not only for the presidential succession but for the renewal of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.
I am going to start with Coahuila and I will leave the Edomex case for my column next week, but first it is worth mentioning that the victory for Morena in both States represents the opportunity to end two very long dynasties where the worst of the PRI is locked up with a great similarity that implies nepotism and corruption.
In Edomex, the current governor Alfredo del Mazo is the son and grandson of former governors with the same name and now his candidate was his secretary of Social Development. In Coahuila, the scenario is even worse since the inheritance of power has not allowed interruptions. First, former governor Humberto Moreira inherits the governorship from his brother Rubén Moreira (today an accomplice of Alito Moreno who appointed him PRI coordinator in San Lázaro), later the current governor Miguel Riquelme who promotes the candidacy of his former Secretary of Social Development as well.
In Coahuila, despite the iron and abusive control imposed by the Moreiras and maintained by the current governor, an enormous opportunity for regime change is seen like never before in Coahuila’s electoral history after 96 years of “the same as always.” in the power. And it is that just less than 4 months after the voting, the senator and current candidate of Morena Armando Guadiana Tijerina leads the electoral polls at least already in a technical tie.
This week the newspaper EL FINANCIERO published that Armando Guadiana with Morena leads the electoral preferences with 43% effective voting intention, leaving the PRIAN candidate Manolo Jimenes in second place with 41%, the Green UDC with 6%, the PT with Mejía far behind with just 5 points with an additional note; Mejía “lost 11 points of favorable opinion compared to the previous October poll”, a drop that coincides in dates with his decision to abandon Morena to go for the PT, ignoring the survey that located Armando Guadiana as the best positioned candidate to contend for the governorship.
I do not rule out that by not having viability or at least chances of winning, he finally ends up giving in and the PT rectifies, all supporting the candidate Armando Guadiana who represents the 4T project. Since these numbers may also indicate that voters perceive Mejía as an ally or palero of the PRI who only seeks to hurt MORENA knowing full well that he has no chance of winning.
Added to this, the EL FINANCIERO survey places Armando Guadiana as the candidate with the highest favorable opinion with 43 percentage points compared to Jimenez of the PRI with 40 points; and regarding the negative opinion Manolo Jimenez has 39 percentage points compared to Armando Guadiana with 36.
Some may say that it is a “technical draw”, others will say that the campaign starts until April 2 and both are right; but the truth is that never in the electoral history of Coahuila had a candidate opposing the PRI (and now also his accomplices from the PAN) started with a slight advantage before starting the campaign.
In fact, Armando Guadiana himself when he faced the PRI in 2017, the conditions and possibilities were much lower than the numbers with which he now starts and that is why today Coahuila has the enormous possibility of ending almost a century of the worst of the PRI like never before. .
Sinaloa and Coahuila, for example, are two states with a similar budget and electorate, and could now share a very similar story electorally speaking; In Sinaloa, Dr. Rubén Rocha Moya was a candidate for governor in 1986 and 1998, but it was not until 2018 when he first won his Senate and swept the entire car, winning the governorship in 2021 with a 24-point advantage over a young PRIAN candidate .
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Rocha Moya with great experience finally managed to defeat the PRI and today rules Sinaloa. In Coahuila, Senator Armando Guadiana also faced the PRI in 2017, then managed to reach the Senate and now begins his process leading the preferences also against a young PRIAN candidate but with an old and heavy burden: the people’s fed up with the PRI. It is not a minor thing that in said survey, 57% of Coahuilenses disapprove of Governor Riquelme.
The saying goes well that “there is no evil that lasts 100 years”, the PRI did not last 100 years in power, neither in Mexico, nor in Sinaloa, nor in 30 other states, and if it could in Mexico and Sinaloa, why Couldn’t it also be done in Coahuila? If you are from Coahuila or live in Coahuila, take a moment to reflect on this. Don’t you think that you and your family deserve something better than what they have been offered for almost 100 years? Don’t you think your children deserve more opportunities than the ones you had? Keep this in mind when deciding.
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