The year 2024 was historic for Argentina’s economy for many reasons. One of them, without a doubt, was the achievement of twin surpluses, which has allowed stabilizing the country’s finances. If it is already complex to convert a surplus deficit, imagine doing so with two deficits. This is what has happened in Argentina, where the fiscal and commercial deficit has become surpluses from one year to another. Not only that, January provisional data reveal that both surpluses are still maintained, which It reveals that this change does not seem like a day or respond to the weakness of the economy in 2024 (For the drastic cuts), but it could be a structural change that will help stabilize weight, inflation and press the accumulation of gross reserves in dollars. All this has been known in a week that has been marked by the ‘crypto -scandal’ starring Javier Milei, an error of the president of Argentina who has taken all the sources of today. However, in the midst of this storm, Argentina’s economy continues to walk, little by little, towards ‘salvation’.
Regarding the closure of 2024, according to data published by the Research Center of the Economic Cycle (CICE), Argentina reached twin surpluses for the first time in 14 years. In historical terms, the last time the country reached this magical combination of a Positive fiscal result along with a supervital trade balance was in 2010, And this fact was only observed in 8 of the last 31 years. The 2024 fiscal surplus was key to reducing inflation expectations and lowering the interest of sovereign debt. For its part, the commercial surplus has allowed a reservation entry (especially a lower exit) that is key to stabilize the weight and search in the future for the end of the exchange rate.
In addition, this week, as noted above, according to the Ministry of Economy, the South American country had a financial surplus (includes the payment of debt services) for 599,753 million pesos, with an year -on -year increase of 15.6% . The data also marks an improvement with respect to the financial deficit by 1.5 billion pesos last December. All this is allowing an important decrease in public debt in the country.
Great surplus in January
“Going to the truly important for people, in the month of January we registered a primary surplus of 2,434,865 million and a financial surplus of almost 600,000 million. This, having eliminated taxes and tariffs,” said Argentine Economy Minister Luis Luis Luis Caputo, through social network X. The financial surplus achieved in the first month of the year is equivalent to 0.1% of GDP, while the result Primary equals 0.3% of GDP, “consolidating the fiscal anchor of the government program,” said the Ministry of Economy in a statement.
In 2024, the public sector of Argentina accumulated a primary surplus of 10.4 billion pesos, equivalent to 1.8% of GDP, from a deficit in 2023 equivalent to 2.9% of GDP. Meanwhile, the financial result achieved in 2024 was positive, for 1.7 billion pesos, which was equivalent to 0.3% of GDP, from a deficit in 2023 equivalent to 6.1% of GDP. The change in public accounts tendency observed last year was due to the severe tax adjustment plan launched by the president of Argentina, Javier Milei, after his arrival in the government in December 2023.
Economy and imports rise
On the other hand, January was also positive for exports, although somewhat less. Argentina last January registered a trade surplus of 142 million dollars, with a contraction of 81.8% compared to the same month of 2024, official sources reported on Tuesday. Despite the descent of the surplus, Argentina managed to chain fourteen months with surplus in the commercial balance. The volume of commercial exchange (exports plus imports) increased by 16.3% year -on -year in Januaryto a total of 11,638 million dollars, as reported on Tuesday the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). The key to everything is in the powerful recovery of imports, product of the improvement of the country’s economy. Royal wages are going up, the investment is recovering and all this is leading to Argentines to consume more. As a result, imports have shot.
In January, Argentina made exports for 5,890 million dollars, 9.1% more than the same month in 2024. Importations, worth $ 5,748 million, had an interannual increase of 24.6%. The southern country last year recorded a commercial surplus of 18,899 million dollarsfrom a negative balance for 6,925 million dollars in 2023. According to government projections, Argentina would achieve this year a commercial surplus of 20,748 million dollars.
Much of this commercial ‘success’ is merit of oil and gas. Argentina reached last January in the energy segment for a total of 879 million dollars, which meant an interannual increase of 23.7% that is based on the growing activity in the gigantic formation of non -conventional hydrocarbons of Vaca Muerta . As official sources reported on Wednesday, oil exports, gas and other energy registered in the first month of the year represented 14.9% of the total sales abroad specified by Argentina in January.
Most of the placements corresponded to crude oil, with shipments for 236 million dollars. According to sources from the Argentine Ministry of Energy, the main destination of the shipping of the energy segment was Chile, with sales for 259 million dollars (+35.9% year -on -year), second for the United States, with a total of 233 Millions of dollars (+54.2% year -on -year). Argentina’s energy imports totaled 201 million dollars in January, which meant a 32.5% year -on -year drop. Argentina produces large amounts of oil and gas, so it no longer needs to import raw materials.
As a result, Argentina achieved a surplus in its energy balance of 678 million dollars in the first month of the year. Last year, Argentina achieved a surplus in the energy balance of 5,668 million dollars. That result was a turn regarding the deficit that Argentina has registered since 2011, except for 2020, an anomalous year for the effects of pandemic.
The Muerta Vaca Site
The key to this change in trend is Vaca Muerta, in southwest Argentina, the second largest world -unconventional gas reserve and the fourth of this type. The colossal formation, which began to be explored by the YPF oil company, controlled by the Argentine State, in 2013, has since received investments for 50,000 million dollars for its development.
A decade afterl Start of exploitation in Vaca Muerta, production is recordwhich has allowed Argentina not only to reduce substantially its need for gas import in the southern winter but also to count on increasing exportable balances of hydrocarbons.
Vaca Muerta, where they also operate oil companies such as Shell, Exxonmobil, Chevron, Total, Wintershall, Vista, Pan American Energy (PAE), Pluspetrol and Pampa Energía, among others, already represents 50.1% of the gas and 54,9 % of the oil produced by Argentina.
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