There NASA is preparing to face a threat that could change the fate of our planet: an asteroid called Apophismeasuring 350 meters in diameter, is heading towards Earth. Scientists estimate that the encounter will occur in five years, in 2029raising serious concerns about what might happen if an impact were to occur.
A harbinger of chaos and destruction?
The name of this asteroid was not chosen by chance. Apophisin Egyptian mythology, represents chaos and darkness, and an impact of this size could not have a more appropriate meaning. But what would really happen if Apophis hit Earth? Scientists estimate that the energy released would be equal to 900 megatons of TNTa devastating power, especially when compared to the most powerful nuclear bomb ever exploded, which reached 50 megatons.
The consequences of such a violent impact would be catastrophic, but the extent of the destruction would depend on the location of the impact. If Apophis were to hit land, it would create a death zone extending over 250 km radius. Outside this area, there would be a good chance of survival, but those inside the affected area would have no escape. If the asteroid were to hit the ocean, however, enormous tsunami taller than 100 meters would devastate the nearby coasts.
Apophis: A New Mass Extinction?
The question many are asking is whether Apophis could cause a mass extinction event similar to the one that hit Earth. 66 million years agowiping out the dinosaurs. Experts seem reassuring on this front: to cause a global extinction, the energy released by Apophis would have to be 100 times higher to that currently estimated. However, uncertainty remains, and the threat cannot be completely ignored.
Apophis in 2029 and Beyond: What are the Real Chances of Impact?
Since its discovery in 2004Apophis has raised great concern. Initially, the chances of an impact in the 2029 were estimated at 2.7%. This data was later revised, and today we know that in 2029 the asteroid will pass close to Earth without impacting it. However, Apophis will return again: scientists predict it will get closer again in 2036 and in the 2068creating further opportunities for risk.
A particularly disturbing factor is the so-called Yarkovsky effecta phenomenon that could alter the asteroid’s trajectory due to solar radiation. This could increase the probability of impact in the next close passes. In fact, in 2020the team of researchers detected a shift in the orbit of 170 meters per yearwhich has rekindled concerns about the risk of an impact on 2068.
Is NASA ready?
There NASAalong with other space agencies, is working tirelessly to improve its capabilities for monitoring and preventing asteroid impacts. The organization regularly conducts exercises to simulate emergency scenarios, but the latest report revealed that, at the moment, we are not ready to face the worst case scenario.
The most recent simulations have shown that the asteroid would hit densely populated areas, including the North AmericatheEurope and the North Africawith a probability of 72% impact in one of these areas. Furthermore, the asteroid would be too close to the Sun to be easily observed, making timely intervention difficult.
Despite these difficulties, NASA is trying to improve its preparation. A space telescope, the Near Earth Object Surveyorwill be launched in 2028 to detect new near-Earth asteroids and improve our ability to monitor potentially hazardous objects.
Are we really ready?
The threat of Apophis reminds us how fragile our existence on planet Earth is. Are we really ready to face an emergency of this magnitude? At the moment, the answer seems to be no. Experts continue to work on defense plans, but there are many unknowns, and politics and economic resources do not always cooperate in the long term.
We cannot afford to lower the guardbecause the next one asteroid may not give us time to adequately prepare. NASA and scientists around the world are doing everything they can to prepare, but the debate about how to deal with these situations remains open. If you liked the article or it made you think, let us know what you think in the comments, or share it with your friends! Don’t forget to follow us on Instagram to stay up to date on all the news from the world of science and technology.
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