The Belarusian opposition is warning of further Russian invasions: an alliance with Ukraine is on the cards.
Minsk/Kyiv/Moscow – Belarus describes itself as of Russia partners, also in Ukraine war: a relationship, which international observers view as a security dependency. Logically, ruler Alexander Lukashenko sees things differently: Belarus is sovereign and above all protects its own people. Only a direct attack by the country would be sufficient for entry into the war Ukraine conflict worry, he emphasized several times.
To this end, he has already held military exercises near the Ukrainian border. At the end of May, Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko ordered his military set up “operational command structures” on the southern border. “We must act as in wartime,” he emphasized, “but without war.” It was also recently announced that that Russia and Belarus establish a joint military unit.
Belarus: Opposition wants to ally with Zelenskyj against Putin
Lukashenko also recently ordered a covert mobilization: According to a report by the taz the Belarusian ruler instructed the heads of all enterprises to compile lists of conscripts. Accordingly, notices of convocation could be distributed directly at the workplace using the lists.
According to Artyom Schraibman, a political analyst from Belarus, Lukashenko acts for several reasons: “As a result of the Russian defeats in the Ukraine Lukashenko is under pressure in two ways. On the one hand, he must credibly assure Putin that he is still by his side and will not betray him. At the same time, Lukashenko must send a message of stability to his home audience, the people of Belarus, and promise them that he will not let their country get involved in this war,” Schraibman told Dem mirror.
Opposition in Belarus sees Lukashenko’s dependence on Putin as a problem
Lukashenko’s dependence on Putin sees the opposition in Belarus as a lasting problem: Valery Kavaleuski, foreign policy representative, warned the news portal Daily Beastthat Belarus faces a similar fate as Ukraine: “The Russians see us in the same light as they see Ukraine.”
“This is a state that is temporarily dependent. This is the nation that doesn’t deserve to be next to Russia, so they all need to be ‘Russified’. That is their basic understanding of how the world should work,” says Kavaleuski. According to this, Putin could primarily attack Latvia, Lithuania and Poland in this way, which is an attack against the Nato equals
Belarus: Opposition leader makes Zelenskyy an offer
That is why the Belarusian opposition now wants to forge an alliance with Ukraine: opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran against Lukashenko in 2020, has told the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an offer. “We propose to build an alliance with democratic Belarus,” Tsikhanouskaya said in her proposal: “I am convinced that Russia will be defeated and Ukraine will restore its territorial integrity and defend its independence. Ukrainians are now writing not only their own history, but that of the world. […] We are ready to act together with Ukraine.”
Belarus expert Scott Rauland considers the alliance proposal to be the next “natural” step, as he does Daily Beast said. “It would be in Zelenskyy’s best interest to make common cause with the Belarusian opposition. They have a common enemy,” said the former head of mission at the US embassy in Belarus.
So far it is unclear what Zelenskyj thinks of Zichanouskaya’s alliance proposal. The Ukrainian President’s team has not yet commented on this. (do)
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