1. What happened?
Some 84 people were killed – including six children – and 220 were injured in an attack in Iran on Wednesday, January 3. Two explosions took place near a cemetery in the city of Kerman, located 820 kilometers southeast of Tehran. A ceremony was being held there to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, one of the most charismatic figures in the country's recent history, who died in 2020 in a US drone attack. Witness testimonies reveal that both explosions occurred 10 minutes apart. The first occurred 700 meters from Soleimani's tomb and the second, one kilometer, according to the IRNA news agency. Iranian authorities have indicated that these were caused by two remotely detonated bombs. The authorities first spoke of more than 100 victims, later they lowered the figure to 95 and this Thursday they did it again to 84. The reason for these changes is that there were many duplicate names.
2. Why was Qasem Soleimani so symbolic?
General Qasem Soleimani was considered by many experts to be the most powerful person in Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and is considered the architect of Iranian intelligence and military strength. He began his military career in 1979, joining the Revolutionary Guard weeks after the military organization was established by Ayatollah Khomeini in order to protect the newly proclaimed Islamic Republic. He was the mastermind of the Iranian intervention in Iraq and since the 1990s he was commander of the elite Al Quds force, the unit in charge of operations abroad. From this position, Soleimani directed clandestine operations abroad and was a key figure in Iran's long campaign to try to expel US forces from the Middle East.
He also played important roles in Iran's fight against the Islamic State and in the Syrian civil war, in which Tehran was instrumental in keeping Bashar al-Assad in power. In Iran he was treated as an almost mythical figure, while the United States and Israel considered him a terrorist since 2011. Months before his assassination, the Trump Administration included the Al Quds Force on its list of terrorist organizations. Soleimani was killed on January 3, 2020 in a drone strike at the airport in Baghdad, the Iraqi capital, carried out by the US military on orders from then-President Donald Trump.
3. In what context does it occur?
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The explosions took place a day after the attack that killed the number two of the Palestinian Hamas militia, Saleh al Aruri, in Beirut, of which Lebanese and Palestinian authorities accuse Israel, although it does not claim responsibility, and when in Gaza More than 22,000 people have died. If the authorship is confirmed, it would represent the greatest Israeli success since the start of the war in the Strip on October 7. Tensions between Iran and Israel, along with their ally the United States, have reached a new high point in the wake of the war in Gaza.
4. What impact has it had on Iran?
The Islamic Republic has declared this Thursday a day of mourning out of respect for the victims of what it considers the most serious attack since the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated in a statement that it will use all international means to identify and bring to justice those involved in the attacks and those who support them. At the cemetery where the explosions took place, a crowd gathered on Wednesday night and chanted: “Death to Israel” and “Death to the United States.”
5. Who is behind it?
It is not known. Although the Iranian authorities have not publicly blamed anyone and have limited themselves to calling for revenge, Esmail Qaani, senior commander of Iran's Al Quds Force, has declared that the attacks had been carried out by “agents of the Zionist regime.” [Israel] and of the United States.” Tehran often accuses its bitter enemies, Israel and the United States, of supporting anti-Iran militant groups. However, there are more possibilities. One of them is that the perpetrators are separatists from the province of Balochistan, east of Kerman. They could also be the People's Mujahideen, an old nemesis of the Islamic Republic, or the Islamic State, which has carried out deadly attacks in 2017, 2018 and 2022.
6. What impact can it have on the powder keg of the Middle East? What role does Iran play in relation to Hamas and Hezbollah?
This is one of the great unknowns that only the passage of time can answer. But any upheaval in the Iranian regime can immediately spread to the Middle East, especially if one takes into account Tehran's ideological, military and financial ascendancy over Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia party, which has much more military strength than the Palestinian group. Hamas. Hezbollah, in turn, is sometimes defined as the older brother of Hamas, although this militia is Shiite and the Palestinian group is Sunni. Iran's direct confrontation with Israel does not seem likely. But Hezbollah's conventional entry into the war against Israel carries an increasingly high risk. The leader of the Shiite militia, Hasan Nasrallah, issued a warning on Wednesday, January 3, after the death of Saleh Al Aruri in Lebanon: “If the enemy plans to launch a war against Lebanon, we will fight without limits, without restrictions, without borders ( …)”.
7. How have Western governments, especially the US and Europe, reacted?
The European Union has expressed its condolences to the victims and has stated that it hopes that those responsible for this “act of terrorism” will be held accountable. US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller stated in a press conference that the US is not involved in any way and that Iran has no reason to believe that Israel is. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby has made a similar statement.
8. And those closest to Iran?
World leaders such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have spoken out. “We are deeply saddened (…) I express my deepest condolences to the friendly and brotherly Iranian people,” he lamented on his X account. Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent his condolences to Iran and has condemned “terrorism in all its forms.” shapes”. The Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels, regional allies of Iran, have condemned the attacks. Hezbollah has expressed itself through its secretary general, Hasan Nasrallah, who in a televised speech has condemned “the treacherous attack.” For its part, the Houthi political office has sent a statement of disapproval against the “hateful” attack. Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon and even Saudi Arabia, traditionally a rival of Iran, have also condemned these attacks.
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