This season could mark a before and after in the business model of the NBA, the most important basketball league in the world. After many years of continuous success, audiences are beginning to decline noticeably, something that does not concern the competition commissioner at the moment, Adam Silverwhich puts other reasons before a game model that does not convince the viewer.
This is what the audiences say, since the first day of the season they have been recording worse data than previous years. For example, the opening day had 42% less audience and the second day of competition, 30% lower than the last campaign. Until the NBA Cup semifinals, the viewing share of the matches for the league’s national partners (ESPN, ABC and TNT) decreased by 19% compared to the same period last year, according to data from Sports Media Watch.
But these data do not matter much to Silver. The head of the NBA assured that this year they have had to deal with other competitions, in addition to the US elections. “This year we have had to compete with the Dodgers-Yankees World Series (baseball league Finals), two very attractive teams. They have achieved a large audience,” he explained about a really powerful confrontation. Another reason according to him has been the American elections, with everything that this drags down and takes away from the rest of the content.
But in reality, one of the reasons that could have caused this drop in viewership is the game model that has been in place for a few years, where the triple is practically the main protagonist of the matches. Something that does not worry Silver and that the matches are worth it, no matter what, and, therefore, turning a deaf ear to those who have suggested increasing the line of three as a solution.
However, on Christmas Day he agreed, for the moment, with the commissioner, with record audience data, thanks in part to the match between the Lakers and the Warriors, which was not decided until the final moments, with a average of 7.76 million viewers and a peak of 8.32 million at 10:30 p.m. In total, the matches had an average of 5.25 million viewers, which is the best figures in the last five years. “Today has been a step in the right direction to get people excited about basketball again. I hope it’s not just because it’s Christmas,” he acknowledged. Kevin Durant (Suns) after beating the Nuggets.
The stars raise their voices
One of the great assets of the NBA, as is LeBron Jameshas been the last to comment on the matter, stating that currently “a lot of damn triples are taken.” For the Lakers forward, “it’s not just the All Star, it’s our sport in general,” he said. “I have my perspectives on what could work better. We need to act. The last few All-Star games have not lit up the night as expected,” he said. Shortly after, Silver responded, claiming that not everything has to focus on shots from the three-point line. “We are having a lot of discussions about style, but I wouldn’t reduce everything to the three-point shot. We have to look more broadly at other aspects, such as the skill of the players, the offensive diversity and how the fans perceive the game,” he said.
He already verbalized this Pau Gasol two years ago, when he said that “now there are 3-pointers ‘by kicking’, he’s a street runner.” “I don’t really like that the essence of this game is lost, which is to play as a team, move the ball, create a balance between inside and outside. A little more tactics if you want before any shot is good,” he remarked. The elder Gasol recalled that years ago it was inconceivable to shoot so fast or attempt three-pointers on a fast break. “Before, you would shoot in the first 8 seconds of possession and they would sit you on the bench. And if you shot a three-pointer on a fast break, without an offensive rebound, it was like “think about it a little bit,” recalls the former Lakers player, among many other teams.
A few weeks ago it was the mythical Shaquille O’Neal the one who came to the fore to raise his voice regarding this boring game model for many that has caused a considerable drop in NBA audiences. “I have a theory. It has gone down because we are always seeing the same thing. Nowadays all the teams shoot threes. They are all executing the same plays in the damn zone behind the free throw, with the dribbling and the step-back. And the audience is going to continue to decline unless we change things to the way they were done before,” he confessed.
An alarming evolution
The increase in the three-point shot is evident and, over the years, it is increasing, and one of the reasons that may lead to this change is the continuous physical increase of the players, increasingly more athletic.
According to data from Sporting Newsin the three-year period from 1979 to 1982, 13,126 triples were launched out of a total of 498,508 attempts, which represented a 2.63% total success rate. From 1995 to 1998, 108,335 three-pointers were made out of a total of 568,806 attempts. 19.04% of the total. In the three-year period from 2004 to 2007, 119,733 triples were launched out of a total of 588,014 attempts, which represented 20.36% of the total success rate. And finally, from 2016 to 2019, 212,054 three-pointers were made out of a total of 629,243 attempts. 33.69% of the total.
Given this, Antoni Daimiel, one of the most experienced NBA analysts and commentators in Spain, warned a long time ago of the change that was taking place in the most important and spectacular basketball league in the world. “Basketball changes because the way of playing changes and the physicality of the players who are bigger, faster and stronger, and the space is the same,” he said in ‘Play Basket’. “The passage of time begins to complicate the issue of spaces, you just have to look at the number of times he steps on the sideline in each game because his feet don’t fit between the sideline and the three-point line.” A situation that, in the future, could change part of the regulations.
For Daimiel, one of the keys could be in the change in the dimensions of the track. Logically, as the players are more athletic and physical than before, the spaces should accommodate these characteristics. “More spaces are needed for the players to move more freely, for the ball to move more freely and because the players – Wembanyama is the latest example – are getting bigger, their arms are longer, they react in the much faster movement… Therefore, this must be changed,” he declared.
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