Kiev declared a state of emergency, Wednesday, and asked its citizens in Russia to leave, while Moscow began evacuating its embassy in Kiev, in the latest alarming signs for Ukrainians who fear an all-out Russian military attack.
Meanwhile, Newsweek magazine quoted US intelligence officials as saying that the Joe Biden administration had informed Kiev of intelligence assessments that Russia was preparing to launch a full-scale attack within the next 48 hours.
No political options
Academic specialist in international affairs, Tariq Fahmy, said that there are several open scenarios, and the military scenario has become anticipating any political options; Because within hours, the Russian army may move and enter Ukraine and thus will put the West, America and NATO in trouble, because Washington has redeployed some of its forces in European countries, but it is not enough, as it does not exceed 8,500 soldiers and officers, and therefore does not have a military response as well as Europe and the alternative to that is economic work and sanctions.
Fahmy added, to “Sky News Arabia”, that Germany started this by suspending Nord Stream 2, which is already hurting Russia, because Berlin depends about 60% on Russian gas and France has capabilities and capabilities, but Emmanuel Macron is afraid of getting involved ahead of upcoming elections in light of the already low popularity, and then The Europeans do not have many alternatives, and NATO is scattered and is on the defensive, not militarily or offensively.
He made it clear that the European Union, whether at Thursday’s meeting or later, will be satisfied with recording positions that the Russian side does not understand well. Putin talks about the return of the Soviet Union and the strategic space of the great Soviet state and talks about other visions, and therefore Ukraine is the beginning.
He pointed out that this summit may crystallize a vision, but it will remain diplomatic; Because there is a blockage in the political horizon, and important meetings will not be held, whether between the Russian and American presidents or others. The Americans grabbed the stick from the middle through sanctions on financial institutions and ineffective people, and the US sanctions system is weak and not successful, so it did not work with North Korea or others and therefore will not succeed. With a country the size of Russia.
And therefore, currently the military option precedes any political or diplomatic option, and the powers that could have played a role in the crisis, such as France and Germany, who are leading the European Union, failed to deal with the scene, so there is no other power, Britain wants military action, but it is unable Assuming this option, because it cannot enter with forces because it does not have bases or deployment in European countries, it wants to say that it is an alternative to the Americans in military action, but it does not have special capabilities after its exit from the European Union.
On the horizon of the current crisis, Fahmy said that the crisis will continue to escalate and military action will take priority. Ukraine is the beginning of what is to come, so we are heading to militarize Russian foreign policy in its areas of influence to control the Black Sea region.
emergency summit
European Council President Charles Michel announced, on Wednesday, that an emergency summit of the leaders of the 27 member states of the European Union will be held Thursday evening in Brussels to discuss the Russian-Ukrainian crisis after Moscow recognized the independence of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine.
“The aggressive steps taken by the Russian Federation violate international law, the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, and the European security order,” Michel said in a statement.
“It is important that we remain united and determined and together define our collective approach and steps,” he said, adding, “The summit will be held in person on Thursday, starting at 20:00 (19:00 GMT).”
imminent attack
And a US official said, on Wednesday, that about 80 percent of Russian forces on the borders of Ukraine are in advanced positions and ready to attack.
The US official explained that the forces that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use to launch an attack on Ukraine are “100% ready,” noting that “Washington believes that Putin is fully ready to launch a comprehensive attack on Ukraine, which is the most likely option.”
The US official revealed that “Russia plans to use its reserve soldiers and National Guard as part of long-term goals in Ukraine.”