From America came the potato, corn, tobacco … and now oil reaches. Good proof of this is Spain, where the US has become the main oil supplier, according to the latest data. But this is without more an anecdote, because America in its set is flooded with the oil market and ‘eating’ to OPEC and his allies. The oil domain no longer belongs exclusively to the OPEC+ (the OPEP more Russia and other Moscow satellite countries). On the vast global energy board, America has taken the lead as the great raw producing power. USA, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina are marking the pulse of the world supply, while the power of the OPEC+ is slowly erodes, losing prominence in the face of the growing production not controlled by the poster. The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) It makes it clear: “We predict that the growth of oil production and other liquids in 2025 and 2026 will be led by countries outside the OPEC+”. Moreover, the crude produced outside the cartel will reach almost 60% of the entire global offer, a big difference compared to the 70s, when the proportions were the inverse.
The rise of America in the oil market is irrefutable. Like Russia and Saudi Arabia (OPEC+nucleus) they are large producers and have several ‘satellite’ countries that support their decisions in the oil market, the US is achieving something similar by chance and without intention: USA, Canada, Guyana , Argentina … have become the stars of the American oil market for market forces, without establishing cooperation or cartelization. Although this is a story of comings and goings, Parce that free competition is overcomingfor now, to the posterization of the OPEC and its allies.
While the total production of crude and liquids grew by just 0.6 million barrels per day (B/D) in 2024, it is expected to increase at 1.9 million B/D in 2025 and at 1.6 million B/ D in 2026, driven by operations in the western hemisphere. “Production growth mainly comes from four countries in America: The United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil, “says EIA. Faced with this, the increase in production in OPEC+ will be minimal: just 0.1 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million B/D in 2026, reflection of the continuous adjustment of the offer that the group maintains.
The epicenter of this transformation is USA, which continues to consolidate as the largest world producer of crude and liquids (refined oil products are included). In 2024, American production reached 13.2 million B/D, thanks to the improvement in efficiency with a lower number of active platforms. “We estimate that the production of oil in the United States will grow by 0.6 million B/D in 2025 and 0.5 million B/D in 2026, with the Permica basin representing approximately 50% of the total production” , EIA stands out. This growth not only compensates for contraction in other regions, but strengthens American energy leadership.
Guyana and Canada’s oil
But the US is not the only protagonist in this revolution. Canada, which in 2024 was positioned as the fourth largest world producer, will see an increase of 0.3 million B/D in 2025 and 0.2 million B/D in 2026, driven by the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which will facilitate the export of crude oil from Alberta to the west coast of the country. Brazil, meanwhile, will also play a key role with the incorporation of new floating and storage units (FPSO) in the Santos basin. “We hope that these new projects will increase the production of fluids in Brazil by 0.1 million B/D in 2025 and 0.2 million B/D in 2026,” says EIA.
Guyana is another emerging actors in this market transformation. With the beginning of the Yellowtail project in the Stabroek block, the production of this small South American country will increase 0.2 million B/D by 2025 and 0.1 million B/D in 2026, with the expectation that the Block reach a production capacity of 1.3 million b/d for 2027. This growth places Guyana as one of the new promises in the global energy sector. Never such small country or so few inhabitants (about 800,000) managed to develop a oil industry so fast and so successful.
In contrast, the OPEC+ faces a scenario of progressive loss of influence. The production of the poster represented 47% of the world offer in 2024 and is expected to fall to 46% in 2025 and 2026, Far from 53% that held in 2016when the expanded group was consolidated. “Volunteer production cuts announced in 2023 will remain in force until the end of 2026, which will limit the growth of the OPEC+supply,” says the EIA. Despite the gradual recovery of its production, with an increase of 0.1 million B/D in 2025 and 0.6 million B/D in 2026, the lack of dynamism compared to the growth of non -aligned producers With the poster reduces its weight in the market.
Saudi Arabia and Russia lead OPEC+
Within OPEC+, Saudi and Russia Arabia continue to lead production, although with restrictions. In 2024, The Saudi kingdom pumped 9 million b/d, 13% less than in 2022due to the volunteer cuts agreed by the group. Russia, on the other hand, produced 9.2 million B/D, consolidating itself as the largest producer inside the poster. Other countries such as Iraq (4.4 million b/d), United Arab Emirates (2.9 million B/D) and Kuwait (2.5 million b/d) complete the list of the main producers of OPEC+ .
The balance of forces in the oil market is changing. America, with its growing production, is displacing the hegemony that OPEC+ exercised for decades. While the group of producers led by Saudi and Russia Arabia maintains restrictions and seeks to sustain prices through cuts, US production and that of its neighbors continues to rise, guaranteeing a constant flow of crude oil to the global market. “The weight of OPEC+ in world production continues to decrease, while the supply of crude oil in America continues to expand,” concludes the EIA.
The future of the energy market is increasingly decentralized, with America as the new epicenter of oil growth. OPEC+ faces an existential challenge: adapt to the new reality or yield, irreversibly, its dominance over the crude oil industry.
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