Russia has made good on its threat and has launched one of its feared “asymmetric responses” to Western involvement in the ukrainian war and given the high possibility that it will allow Kyiv use its long-range missiles against Russian soil. The imminent arrival of thousands of North Korean soldiers to that theater of war changes the conflict and reveals the extent of the military alliance between Russia and North Korea, which would also affect the east asia.
The deployment of up 13,000 North Korean soldiers with Russian uniforms and equipment in southern Russia and occupied Ukraine has set off all the alarms in the European Union and the NATOless than a week before the presidential elections in the United States. Senior US officials confirmed to CNN that there is already North Korean military units deployed in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian intelligence services had denounced the presence of North Korean forces in Russia and that some of these troops would already be on the front. South Koreawhich has sent a delegation to Brusselshas estimated the number of these combatants at 13,000, who could form part of special military units.
In a joint statement, NATO and the EU described this arrival of North Korean soldiers to the war in Ukraine as a “serious threat“for European and global security.
The US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austinhe stated, after seeing himself in Washington with his South Korean colleague, Kim Yong-hyunthat this was an “unprecedented” and “very worrying” step if North Korean troops intervene in combat.
A new blow to Zelensky, who proposes a truce for the first time
The North Korean deployment comes amid Ukraine’s disappointment over the West’s cold reception of the Victory Plan of the president Volodymyr Zelenskywhich would have led the Ukrainian leader to raise for the first time the possibility of a partial truce with Russia.
“We do not attack their energy infrastructure and they do not attack ours. Could this lead to an end to the hot phase of the war? I think so,” Zelensky said in statements released this Wednesday.
Zelensky reiterated his concern about the damage that the russian bombings have caused to Ukrainian critical infrastructure, which has halved the capacity of energy production of the country. All this in view of the the harshest winter is expected since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
These lurches by Zelensky, one day asking for a partial truce and another day for NATO’s direct intervention in the war, do not convince the Kremlin. In Moscow there is fear of a repeat of what happened in the summer, when incipient contacts between both countries mediated by Taste were frustrated by the surprise Ukrainian incursion into the southern Russian region of Kursk.
Those Ukrainian troops continue fighting in Kursk and possibly that will be where the North Korean troops enter combat.
Zelensky’s complaints
Zelensky’s problem is that the West also does not trust his ability to win, or even to come with good cards to eventual negotiations. Especially when Moscow is playing its military and political cards much better, as the US summit demonstrated last week. BRICS in Kazanwhich showed that Russia is not isolated, far from it.
A few days ago, the Polish Defense Minister, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamyszsaid out loud what has been discussed with concern in Brussels for months: The Ukrainians are exhausted after two years and eight months of war. “The situation at the front is difficult; there is enormous war fatigue“he stated.
This Wednesday, Zelensky complained bitterly that his country has only received the 10% of military aid approved by the United States Congress this year. Last week, the US approved, together with the G7, a new loan to Ukraine worth 50 billion dollars from frozen Russian assets. Of this sum, 20 billion are borne by Washington.
In April, the White House got Congress to finally approve the aid package for Ukraine estimated at 61 billion dollars that the Republicans had paralyzed for half a year. Much of the amount goes to American manufacturers of weapons destined for Ukraine. However, such requests must give way to the weaponry that the Pentagon is sending to Israel to attack Loop and the Lebanon.
The slow arrival of military aid hinders the operations of the Ukrainian army, also punished by the desertions of soldiers tired due to the lack of reinforcements and the refreshment of troops.
Instead, the war economy imposed by President Vladimir Putin has triggered the Russian arms production and generated new income that is supporting the costs of the invasion and allows planning a long warundo the Ukrainian productive fabric and bleed a Europe also committed to billions of euros with Ukraine.
This Wednesday, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyenwarned that Russia’s military spending “is in the process of surpassing” that of all EU countries combined.
What neither Zelensky nor Von der Leyen say is that the discontent in the Ukrainian army by kyiv’s deliberate imprecision about what is happening on the front, allowing propaganda for internal and external consumption to mislead the military itself and prevent an effective response to Russian advances.
The internationalization of war. Now, North Korea
And now the war takes this new turn and threatens a greater internationalization of the conflictafter the acquisition of missiles and drones from Iran. An extension that also boosts Russian offensives. With the arrival of North Korean forces and the possibility of many more arriving, as South Koreans and Ukrainians have denounced, Moscow can dedicate more troops to the eastern front, for example, where the Russian advance is slow, but unstoppable.
The North Korean deployment reinforces the Russian offensive capacity, contemplates for the first time in contemporary history the military intervention of an Asian power in Europe and points to an eventual and disturbing similar response from Moscow in Far East Yeah North Korea would be threatened.
It has also reopened the debate among European allies on the possibility of deploying troops from EU countries in Ukraine. Atlantic alliancealthough it is not under the NATO flag, as the French president claimed at the time, Emmanuel Macronor as the Baltic countries continue to ask.
Such a step would push the escalation of tension between the West and Russia to the limit, and could trigger a direct confrontation with Moscow.
Threat to global peace
At the moment, both in Washington and Brussels, as well as in Seoul and Tokyoallies of the United States, the concern is maximum and It is feared that this step by Russia and North Korea has changed the course of the war in Ukraine and the correlation of forces in the Asia-Pacific regionsomething Washington cannot tolerate.
In their joint statement, the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutteand President Von der Leyen indicated that the deployment of North Korean soldiers “to support the” Russian “war of aggression” represents a significant escalation of the conflict against Ukraine, as well as a serious threat to European security and global peace“.
The statement also stressed that the war in Ukraine is currently “the greatest threat to peace and security on the European continent“and, with this North Korean intervention, “the growing assertiveness of authoritarian states on the world stage is evident.”
Von der Leyen and Rutte promised greater coordination and better cooperation between the EU and NATO, although they did not detail the steps that both organizations will take in support of Ukraine.
Nervousness in Washington
If such steps are taken. He November 5 the results of the American presidential elections They could mark a new direction for Western support for Ukraine, not just that of Washington.
The Republican candidate donald trumphas reiterated that he will end that war if he comes to power. The Democrat and current vice president, Kamala Harriscould find itself in the position, if it wins, of also reconsidering its support for kyiv, given the opening of new fronts of instability, from the Middle East to the Far East.
In Washington, as well as in Seoul and Tokyo, Unrest spreads over the renewed alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow. The new strategic treaty between the two countries provides for mutual military assistance in the event that either state is attacked. According to South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, Pyongyang to demand Russian tactical nuclear weapons and ICBM technology in exchange for deployment in Ukraine.
This would shield the North Korean regime (also protected by China) and would leave Japan and South Korea at the mercy of Pyongyang’s provocations, which it has often displayed since it was signed in 1953 he armistice that stopped the inter-Korean war (1950-1953).
The Russian-North Korean rapprochement also takes place when Moscow and Beijing have responded with greater political, economic and military cooperation to the pressure from Washington and its allies on China, which they have come to accuse of being a partner in the war in Ukraine.
And sending North Korean soldiers may be just the beginning of that military cooperation with Russia. This Wednesday the North Korean Foreign Minister arrived in Moscow, Choe Son-huiwho met with his Russian counterpart, SErgei Lavrovfor “strategic consultations”, according to the Kremlin.
Moscow’s silence awakens the worst omens in Washingtonwhich sees the tentacles of Russian strategy grow when American foreign policy least needs it.
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