The Pakistani writer: “The Islamists show that they do not know how to govern the country.” And he warns: “The last time they imposed themselves, in 1996, they brought hunger, economic collapse and then the exodus”
It is not possible to trust the Taliban, Ahmed Rashid, one of the leading experts in Afghanistan, has been repeating for three months that while the last western plane took off from Kabul he finished yet another revision of his famous essay “Taliban”, all there is to know on how the infamous Quranic students emerged from the harshest earth and why, after twenty years, they regained power. From his home in Lahohore, armored like a bunker and stuffed with books, Rashid follows like a déjà-vu, the end of music, public punishments, the ax on women: “The situation is very unstable. The Taliban are proving that they do not know how to govern the country. The last time they imposed themselves, in 1996, we then had famine, economic collapse, the exodus of refugees to Pakistan, Iran, Europe. There are several elements that arise again: hunger, resistance on the heights of the Panshir, the unheeded demands of the West, starting with women ».
The erosion of women’s space seems unstoppable.
“The Taliban allowed girls to go to school up to sixth grade. They have not changed since the 1990s. Their Islam exudes an ultraconservative and phony interpretation of the already conservative Deobandi ideology. Women are proof: they are always the same ».
Two weeks ago the government of Islamabad and the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) signed a truce. Can it hold up?
“We can’t trust it. We don’t even know what the agreement says. There have been at least 7 in the last 20 years and they have always been violated by one side or the other ».
Does the infamous Haqqani clan still weigh so much?
“Four members of the Taliban executive are Haqqani, two are ministers. The Haqqani are in the sights of the UN and the United States, they have a bounty of 10 million dollars on their necks, they govern and celebrate suicide bombers. They have a central role that has grown over time. They enjoyed the favor of the US at the time of the war with the USSR and yet they welcomed Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda, the Arabs. They had affiliated with the Taliban as early as the 1990s, they said no to the Americans in 2001 and still cover up terrorists ”.
The special envoy of the United States hypothesizes new talks with the Taliban. It begins again?
“It is tragic that three months after the August debacle and the terrible flight from Kabul airport, American politics is still speechless. The humanitarian crisis is rampant and we need to negotiate to get aid before the refugee wave mounts, a threat to Europe and further impoverishment for the country. The negotiation is not a political recognition: medicine, food is urgently needed. The Afghans pay for what the Taliban and others have done to the world ”.
Was it better to stay?
“Joe Biden’s biggest mistake was not going away but not having planned the withdrawal, I am thinking for example of the madness of having evacuated the NATO operatives before the civilians.”
What role do the regional powers, China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey play?
“Afghanistan has no access to the sea and is surrounded by powerful neighbors. It has always suffered from foreign interference. China is a big beneficiary of the situation, it aims for underground resources, with a little stability it will get to work. Pakistan and Iran aspire but are bankrupt. Russia is not well received. India has a chance because Afghanistan knows it can enter the diatribes among its enemies and could use it against Pakistan. Turkey is important, it has relations with the Uzbeks and acts as a filter for refugees who aim for Europe ”.
How long is it before Afghanistan disappears, failed?
«Afghanistan is geostrategic, it will not vanish from the radar. However, the Afghans are disappearing. For now, the Taliban do not seem willing to compromise, they do not respond to the appeals of the world on women. The clash at the top was won by the Haqqani against the self-styled moderates ».
What kind of threat do the attacks claimed by the Islamic State Khorastan conceal?
“There competition between the Taliban and the Islamic State is fierce. At stake are Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Islamic State accuses the Taliban of compromising with the Americans and will not give up. The tension rises. In addition, there are many other terrorist groups, from Al Qaeda to the acronyms active in Central Asia, which still find protection under the Taliban ».
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