After records, Ibovespa starts the year down 1.11%, at 132.6 thousand points

The Ibovespa started the new year on a low note after renewing historic closing highs in seven of the last ten sessions of 2023. Today, the B3 index fluctuated from 132,094.61 (-1.56%) to 134,194.94, at the high of the day, opening at 134,185.58 points. In the end, this Tuesday it showed a loss of 1.11%, at 132,696.63 points, with a financial turnover of R$19.7 billion. In New York, the performance of the main stock indices on this first business day of 2024 was between -1.63% (Nasdaq) and +0.07% (Dow Jones).

Earlier, and until mid-afternoon, the commodity flagships on B3 – Vale and Petrobras – were the positive exception at the start of the year among the stocks with the greatest weight and liquidity. In a note, Guide Investimentos points out that the ore reacted positively to new promises of economic stimulus by the Chinese government, as well as to better activity data in the Asian country.

In turn, oil prices – which changed direction and remained low throughout the afternoon – initially advanced in the session, with the news that Iran sent a warship to the region in response to the sinking of three Houthi militia boats from Yemen by United States military forces in the Red Sea. Thus, after rising around 2% at the highest point of the day, oil futures contracts closed with losses of close to 1.5% for March Brent and 1.8% for February WTI. reflecting the strengthening of the dollar. Here, the US currency in cash rose 1.29%, to R$4.9158, this Tuesday, which was also reflected in the future interest rate curve, which rose in the session.

In the end, Petrobras still maintained gains (ON +0.97%, PN +1.45%) despite the change in oil signals in London and New York, while Vale weakened, ending the day down 0.19% , which contributed to the accentuation of lows in the Ibovespa, from the middle to the end of the afternoon. In percentage terms, the Ibovespa's drop in the session was the sharpest since the 1.29% loss on October 27th.

At the winning end of the index this Tuesday, highlights were Pão de Açúcar (+3.20%) and CSN Mineração (+1.64%), ahead of the two Petrobras shares, and Raízen (+1.24% ), JBS (+1.04%), Vibra (+0.92%), BB Seguridade (+0.71%) and Ultrapar (+0.26%). Only these nine shares, of the 87 that make up the Ibovespa portfolio for the period January-April 2024, rose in this inaugural session. On the opposite side, Azul (-8.18%), Alpargatas (-8.00%), Locaweb (-7.32%), Gol (-6.91%) and Eztec (-6.58%).

“The day was one of profit taking after the strong rise in December. It's normal to start the year with a little more accommodation, on a day of greater caution here as well as abroad in relation to the next steps, what lies ahead, especially abroad. Thus, the rise in Treasury yields in the session also ended up putting pressure on variable income assets such as shares”, says Rodrigo Moliterno, head of variable income at Veedha Investimentos, highlighting the strong agenda of indicators in the week, especially the official report on the American job market on Friday.

In the domestic context, Ibovespa accentuated the realization of profits in this first session of the year from mid-afternoon, shortly after, also, the rapporteur of the Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO) of 2024, deputy Danilo Forte (União-CE) , having issued a note criticizing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's decision to veto sections of the budgetary rule, including the payment schedule for parliamentary amendments.

“I received the announced vetoes with concern, as they affect the main objective of the LDO of my rapporteur, which is to provide a greater level of predictability, transparency and execution of the Federal Budget”, said Forte, in the note released to the press.

The presidential veto occurs at a delicate moment in the relationship between Planalto and Congress, after the government proposed, at the end of 2023, through a Provisional Measure (MP), a solution contrary to the extension of the payroll exemption for 17 sectors of the economy until 2027, after the Senate and Chamber showed strength and overturned Lula's veto that ended the benefit – amid Treasury initiatives to restore revenues, aiming to meet the goal of zero fiscal deficit in 2024.

“Internally, the market is also keeping an eye on the Compensation MP, which did not please parliamentarians. Haddad has already warned that, if the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco returns the MP, he will end up judicializing the issue, which is bad. One more reason for this day we had, of making profits”, says Moliterno, from Veedha.

“Ibovespa saw a stronger downward trend in the afternoon, in this first trading session of the year. On Friday, when there were no deals on B3, greater skepticism about the growth of the global economy – mainly the United States – already prevailed in international markets, while the crisis in the Chinese real estate market also returns to the attention of investors”, says Gabriel Mota, variable income operator at Manchester Investimentos.

“Nothing, for now, so related to Brazil, which today reflected this aversion that comes from abroad”, adds the operator, also noting that, earlier, both Vale and Petrobras contributed to holding the Stock Exchange a little, mitigating the losses of the Ibovespa , which were worsened by the downward trend of the mining company – the most heavily weighted stock in the index.