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The weather prospects for the long weekend are perfect. At least in the south and southwest of Germany. But a new low-pressure system is already underway.
Munich – Even in southern Germany the rain is finally letting up. Hoch Thomas is slowly asserting himself. The weather will be sunny and warm this weekend. The German Weather Service (DWD) expects temperatures of up to 27 degrees on Saturday (May 11th). According to the current forecasts, after this “May summer” thunderstorms with the risk of severe weather will come again.
Weather expert: Up to 27 degrees, but then “it gets really tough”
“The high pressure weather, which gives us real holiday weather, is shifting towards Scandinavia,” explains meteorologist Alexander König in weather.com-Video. “That’s really nice for northeast Germany,” König continues. There would be really nice days there. But, the southwest of Germany comes into the sphere of influence of a large low pressure area over Western Europe. “Then warm and moist air will be brought in again and things will get really busy. With strong thunderstorms that can also bring with them the potential for severe weather.”
According to the current DWD trend forecast, the first strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, hail and squalls will appear in the west and southwest on Monday evening (May 13th). It stays warm in early summer at 21 to 26 degrees. The outlook is turbulent. Some severe thunderstorms are expected until Thursday.
Saturday, May 11, 2024 | Highs between 20 and 27 degrees, cooler in the northeast |
Sunday, May 12, 2024 | 18 degrees in Western Pomerania, 27 degrees on the Upper Rhine, thunderstorms |
Monday, May 13, 2024 | 21 to 26 degrees, strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, hail and squalls |
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 | 19 to 25 degrees, changeable with showers and sometimes strong thunderstorms |
Source: DWD |
Weather in Germany: Low pressure system moves in from France
“The weather situation will change,” says meteorologist Fabian Ruhnau in the video wetterkanal.kachelmannwetter.com secure. The low pressure zone would come more and more into Germany from the west. “However, it is still a bit of a struggle as to how quickly this will happen,” he emphasizes. How strong is the high still holding against the low pressure area with drier air masses?
“Flooding depression” over Germany – weather expert alarms about model forecasts
The weather expert finds the model forecasts for the second half of the week (from May 17th) exciting and “explosive”: a “5b train-track-like development” can currently be seen on the US weather model. A “very strong low pressure area” that is forming over northern Italy and Austria and could then move further towards Germany. That means: intense rain over Germany. In the European weather model (ECMWF), this development is currently shown further east.
Up to 100 liters per square meter of rain
“But we have to keep an eye on that,” says meteorologist Ruhnau. Because: Rain totals of up to 100 liters of rain per square meter are included in the calculations of the precipitation totals until Saturday (May 18th). “That would be a flood. There would be a risk of flooding,” said Ruhnau. At the same time, when presenting different precipitation forecast maps, he emphatically emphasizes that the maps are not “location-specific”.
“These are the first indications that something could be in the bush,” said the weather expert. There is still some time until next week, until then the calculations will jump back and forth a bit. Even the Japanese and Swiss weather models would expect larger amounts of rain between 50 and 100 liters per square meter – “somewhere in a strip over Germany”. It seems sensible to first enjoy the beautiful weather on Ascension Day and in the next few days. (ml)
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