A vote in favor of war?: what awaits Taiwan after 'challenging' China

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Xi Jinping, China's leader, has tied his country's great power status to a singular promise: unifying the homeland with Taiwan, which the Chinese Communist Party considers a sacred and lost territory. Several weeks ago, Xi called this a “historic inevitability.”

But the elections in Taiwan on January 13, which handed the presidency to a party that promotes the island's separate identity for the third consecutive time, confirmed that this bustling democracy has moved further away from China's dream of unification.

After a campaign of festival-like rallies, where large crowds shouted and danced, Taiwan's voters ignored warnings from China that a vote for the Democratic Progressive Party was a vote for war.

Lai Ching-te, a former doctor and current Vice President, whom Beijing considers a staunch separatist, will be Taiwan's next leader. It is an act of defiance that demonstrated what many already knew: Beijing's pressure on Taiwan — economically and with military harassment — has only strengthened the island's desire to protect its de facto independence.

“The hardline approach hasn't worked,” said Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego. “That is the reality of Taiwanese politics.”

China and the United States have turned Taiwan into a test of opposing visions. For Beijing, the island is a remnant of its civil war that the United States has no business meddling with. For Washington, it is the first line of defense for global stability, a democracy of 23 million people and the world's microprocessor factory.

The huge stakes add gravity to every word or policy Lai or his party may utter now and after his inauguration in May. With Taiwan's sense of identity and China's expectations in conflict, Xi is not anticipated to sit idly by. Before the election, Chinese officials painted Lai as a villain, calling him a “destroyer of cross-Strait peace” and potentially “the creator of a dangerous war.”

During the campaign, Lai, 64, a veteran politician respected for his quiet determination, said Taiwan did not need formal independence. After his victory, he said he would seek a balanced approach to cross-Strait relations, including “cooperation with China,” following the lead of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen.

But there is little chance that China will change its mind.

“Lai Ching-te is an impulsive and politically biased figure, so we cannot rule out the possibility that unpredictable and unknown events may occur during his tenure,” said Zhu Songling, professor of Taiwan studies at Beijing Union University. .

“I'm afraid it's a very dangerous thing,” he added, noting that Xi's views were clear, including his belief that force can be used if necessary.

Western experts on Chinese politics are not much more optimistic. “The next four years will be anything but stable in U.S.-China and cross-strait relations,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University in Washington.

Like other analysts, he said he would expect a familiar series of pressure tactics. At the very least, China will continue to try to manipulate Taiwan politics with disinformation, threats, and economic incentives. Chinese officials have also hinted that they could target trade, removing more tariff concessions.

Beijing has also shown that it will continue to prod Washington to pressure Taiwan and cut military support. Alarm messages are becoming a common feature of US-China diplomacy.

Of course, war is not inevitable. It may be less likely now, when China is busy with a depressed economy and the United States with wars in Europe and the Middle East.

“It is in China's national interest to expand the path of peaceful integration so that they don't have to fight,” Shirk said.

In Taiwan, however, there may be little Xi can do to burnish China's image. In recent surveys, less than 10 percent of Taiwanese respondents considered China trustworthy.

“We have seen too many examples of what Xi did to Hong Kong and how he treated his people,” said Cheng Ting-bin, 56, a teacher in Taipei who voted for Lai.

By: Damien Cave