Military experts pointed out, during a meeting organized by “Center for Strategic and International StudiesTo simulate a war, each party directly involved in such a conflict (the United States, China, Taiwan, and Japan) would suffer “enormous” losses.
“We came to two conclusions,” said Eric Higginbotham, a security expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
- “First, in most cases, China has little chance of succeeding and achieving its operational objectives, or of occupying Taipei,” the capital of Taiwan.
- Second, “the cost of the war will be enormous for all sides, but especially for the United States.”
The simulation tested 24 different scenarios, each involving China’s attempts to take over Taiwan by force by 2026.
The level of US involvement will decide the war. Without American help in defending Taiwan, the Chinese army will occupy the island in three months or less.
In what the experts involved in the simulation described as the most likely scenario, the Taiwanese army would force the Chinese to deploy along the coast.
In the estimation of Matthew Cancian of the Naval War College, a research institute affiliated with the US Navy, critical variables will determine the degree of success of the attack. Including the degree of Taiwan’s resolve to repel the attack, and also by whether or not Japan allowed the United States to launch counterattacks from its bases on Japanese soil.
Without this, Kansian said, “American intervention will not be sufficient to preserve Taiwan’s independence.”
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