Last Saturday, at 12:06 local time (six hours less in mainland Spain), a Chinese coast guard ship collided with a Philippine coast guard ship in the Sabina Atoll, located in the disputed Spratly Islands. Both maritime forces immediately accused each other, as usual, of having deliberately rammed the other in the umpteenth clash between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea. The images published are not conclusive about responsibility. Fortunately, there were no injuries; only material damage. However, the area has become a maritime point of high geopolitical tension in recent months, where a miscalculation could drag the region to an unknown boiling point. The flammable potential has a lot to do with the United States’ commitment to come to the Philippines’ defense if the matter escalates.
Sabina Atoll, a beautiful, uninhabited coral reef with crystal-clear waters, is located about 80 nautical miles west of the Philippine island of Palawan, which is why Manila considers it to be within its exclusive economic zone. It is located about 680 nautical miles southeast of the Chinese island of Hainan, and Beijing considers it to be under its sovereignty: the Asian giant claims 90% of the South China Sea for “historical reasons”, even though a ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016 dealt it a blow by unanimously denying the legal basis for its arguments. The People’s Republic has always questioned the authority of the decision.
The sticking point is just a small reflection of the dispute over the Spratly Islands as a whole, where numerous interests come into play. Scattered along one of the world’s most important shipping routes, they are made up of more than 100 islets or reefs surrounded by rich fishing grounds and potential gas and oil deposits. All the neighbours seem to have a say in the matter. China, Taiwan and Vietnam claim all of the islands, while Malaysia and the Philippines claim part of them, according to the report. The World Factbook, which is produced annually by the US CIA.
Growing strategic interest has led to increased militarization by the contesting nations. In recent decades, as its military and economic power has grown, China has expanded. It now occupies seven outposts; some include air bases with helipads and hangars, naval port facilities, surveillance radars, air defense sites and anti-ship missiles, according to the CIA. Numerous vessels from its vast coast guard patrol the waters.
An old warship stranded
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The Philippines, for its part, has nine settlements. One of them is Ayungin, another frequent clash point. On this sandbank, Manila deliberately ran an old warship, the Sierra Madrenow rusty and eaten away by saltpeter. It appears abandoned, but the Philippines maintains a permanent garrison on board. China has been waiting for years for the shell to disintegrate and its coast guards often try to prevent the Filipinos from receiving supplies of materials to clean it up.
Over the past year, there have been repeated clashes in the vicinity. One of the most dangerous skirmishes took place in June, when Chinese coast guards intercepted and boarded a Philippine naval supply mission with axes and knives. Several people were injured on the Philippine side, including a sailor who lost a thumb.
Following the incident, as usual, Washington recalled that it also has a say in the matter. “The United States reaffirms that Article IV of the 1951 United States-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks against Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft—including those of its Coast Guard—anywhere in the South China Sea.” It reiterated this last Saturday, after the attack on Sabina Atoll, for which it held Beijing responsible. “This is the latest in a series of dangerous and escalating actions.” [por parte de China]”the State Department denounced.
China has reacted with fury. It accuses the Philippines of anchoring the patrol boat in Sabina Atoll in April without its permission. Teresa Magbanuaone of the most advanced in its coast guard fleet – this is the ship that the Philippines says was rammed by the Chinese vessel. Beijing suspects that Manila intends to establish a permanent outpost; the Philippines claims, however, that its presence is in response to reports that China is carrying out land reclamation missions.
“The only option for Manila is to withdraw its ship and personnel from Xianbin Jiao [nombre chino del atolón; para los filipinos el nombre es Escoda]”, headlined an editorial in the official Chinese newspaper on Monday Global TimesThe article proclaimed Beijing’s “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratlys (Nansha Qundao in Chinese), accused Manila and Washington of “dangerously escalating” the situation, and denounced the presence of a US Navy air patrol on the day of the collision.
Beijing fears the anchored ship will become a chronic problem, like the old one Sierra Madre. “The difference is that the Teresa Magbanua “It is not stranded,” Jay L. Batongbacal, a professor at the University of the Philippines College of Law and director of the university’s Institute of Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, said by email. “It is simply anchored in the deepest part of Sabina Atoll, in the protected area. China claims it is ‘semi-stranded,’ which is absurd. As has been shown, [en el choque de] This Saturday, the Teresa Magbanua “It is very much a mobile and operational vessel.” This is precisely what gave China the opportunity to ram it three times without provocation and while changing its position, the academic adds.
For Batongbacal, Beijing has no valid claim to the atoll, a hill that is submerged at high tide. “China claims it is an island, but even its own photographs and videos of the area have yet to reveal any land.” As an underwater feature, he continues, it is part of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and continental shelf. “China has no basis to claim an area of open sea some 680 nautical miles from its nearest coast.”
The good news is that Washington and Beijing, despite the friction, are in the process of recovering the lost dialogue, which could avoid a fatal miscalculation. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited Beijing last week, his first trip to China since taking office. He argued for hours with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, had a brief meeting with the country’s president, Xi Jinping, and an interview with the vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, the first by a senior US official in eight years.
The South China Sea issue crept onto the agenda. Sullivan reaffirmed his defense commitment to Manila during the meetings. “No one is looking for a crisis, not the Philippines, not the United States, and we do not expect China to,” he said. He also highlighted the “deepening of military-to-military communication,” and announced an upcoming call between the commanders of the US Indo-Pacific Command and the Southern Theater of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. However, the National Security Advisor expressed “concern about some destabilizing actions that have taken place, such as the ramming of coast guard vessels.” Two days after he said all this in an appearance, the clash between the coast guard vessels occurred.
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