A damage on the Peninsula prior to cyclogenesis that seems to evolve cold storm since mondayand which will intensify on Tuesday, will leave even torrential rains in the Valencian Country and Murcia, which may exceed 150 liters per square meter in 24 hours, along with very strong gusts of wind.
The dana located today, Sunday, in the interior of the peninsula, will remain almost stationary for a good part of next week and will produce “widespread precipitation” in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, with greater probability and intensity on the Mediterranean slope.
During this Sunday, the showers locally strong in Asturias, Cantabria and areas of the Mediterranean area, where they may be accompanied by storms.
With less intensity, the showers will also affect the northwest of Castilla y León and other areas of the eastern half of the peninsula.
“As of Monday the 28th, the most adverse part of the episode will begin,” according to a special notice of adverse phenomena sent today by the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet).
It is likely that the Dana will move towards the southwest until it is near the Gulf of Cádiz, at the same time that there will be a cyclogenesis at low levels giving rise to a drop in surface area around the southern coast of the peninsula starting in the afternoon and evening.
“In this way the dana will most likely evolve into a cold storm,” according to Aemet.
As a consequence, in the Mediterranean a east wind which will intensify on Tuesday, favoring the arrival of a large amount of humidity to the east of the peninsula.
Very strong showers are expected without being able to rule out, today, that they may reach intensity locally. torrentialin addition to being persistent and accompanied by very strong gusts of wind.
There is still uncertainty about the exact location of the largest accumulations.
He Monday 28 It is most likely that the maximums will be reached in Tarragona and Castellón, as well as in the Strait and, from the afternoon, also in the southeast of the peninsula.
He Tuesday 29which is expected to be the peak day of this episode, the greatest probability of these intense precipitations will be in the peninsular Mediterranean area (less likely in Barcelona and Girona) and around the Strait and, to a lesser extent, in the center and southern half.
It is possible that in parts of the Valencian Country and Murcia, more than 150 liters per square meter will be exceeded in 24 hours.
He Wednesday 30 The most likely areas to register locally very strong and persistent rainfall would be the west of Alborán, Estrecho and lower Guadalquivir, as well as the northeast quadrant, mainly around Castellón and Tarragona.
The Cantabrian and Atlantic slopes, with the exception of the southwest quadrant of the peninsula, and the Balearic Islands, would have a lot less impact these days.
From ThursdayAlthough uncertainty increases considerably, it is most likely that the low will tend to move towards Portugal, thus increasing the probability of heavy rainfall in the south and southwest quadrant of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands; and decreasing in the peninsular Mediterranean area.
Regarding the duration of the episode, the various scenarios agree that it will continue as minimum until Thursday 31 but some extend it until Saturday, November 2.
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