Russia Russia may seek separation of Donbass and Luhansk from Ukraine, says former deputy intelligence chief

Russian The immediate goal may be to separate the Donbass and Luhansk regions from Ukraine, which are in the hands of pro-Russian separatists, says Colonel Evp, a teacher at the University of Jyväskylä and former Deputy Chief of Intelligence at the General Staff. Martti J. Kari. Russia’s actions may seem strange from the West, but in the light of the country’s own tradition, the goal is consistent.

“We don’t know how Russia will make decisions now. Does Russia have a game book and has it been the same all the time, does the game book change according to the situation, or are there different camps, ie is there a fight between different power groups within the country – or is there a free fall, ”says Kari.

“Possibly, with a probability of about 50 percent, if Russia has a game book, there may be reflexive control here, that is, getting the opponent to do as desired. We do not know whether the West will do exactly what Russia wants it to do now. ”

According to Karin, the path of diplomacy will probably run at least until February 15, when the German Chancellor Olaf Scholzin is scheduled to visit Moscow. Scholtz is likely to visit Ukraine as well, Kari estimates.

“The Russian leadership will probably look at the Germany card. Then tighten the screw. ”

Martti J. Karin according to the assessment of Russia’s military intentions, one should now look not so much at the movements of the Army but at the Air Force. He notes that Russia has recently transferred SU-25 ground fighter jets to Belarus, among other things.

“It’s a gate opener, a very handy machine for ground paints.”

According to Kari, if Russia uses SU-25 aircraft as part of the use of air force against Ukraine, the targets would probably be Ukrainian military targets.

“I’m not saying that war will break out there, but if it breaks out, the focus of Russia’s use of force would be on the Ukrainian armed forces.”

The Ukrainian army now has the ability to combat missile air, but there are few fighters. Thus, its chances of responding to an air attack are not very good.

“If there is a ground operation in Ukraine, it will be very low. Russia would use it mainly to tie up and press Ukrainian troops. ”

According to Kari it seems that Russia’s near-term goal may be to separate the Donbass and Luhansk regions from Ukraine in the hands of pro-Russian separatists.

“According to some reports, the Russian State Duma intends to propose recognition of the independence of the two rebel republics. I don’t know if this is true or reflexive control. However, this suggests that the key to the crisis is the Donbass. ”

Russia would therefore aim to implement the second Minsk agreement of 2015, which was never implemented. The agreement would guarantee autonomy for the separatist regions of eastern Ukraine.

Kari, who served as defense ombudsman in Ukraine and as a strategic advisor in the reform of Ukraine’s intelligence service, said the agreement would prevent Ukraine from sliding west and give Russia a lever in Ukrainian politics.

Possible and it is also appropriate, according to Kari, that Russia is trying to get a leadership of its choice in Ukraine. This would bring Ukraine back into Russia’s front.

“We in the West are often viewed too close and too short. The Russian way of thinking is to go in stages. ”

According to Kari, Russia has been considered to be in Russia’s interests since the 17th century. In 1654, in the Treaty of Pereyaslav, the Cossacks of Ukraine agreed to settle under the Tsar of Russia and the then great power against Poland.

In any case, lobbying is an essential part of Russia’s foreign and military policy self-understanding: Russia is not protected from the aggressive West by the seas or mountains, so it must acquire buffer zones subject to protection.

“The idea is that without Ukraine, Russia is not an empire, and therefore Russia will never give up Ukraine, or at least make every effort to keep it to itself.”

However, with the Orange Revolution of 2004, Ukraine began to work towards closer Western relations and a Western social model. In 2010, pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych returned to power and in 2013 he was ousted by protests in Maidan Square.

“Ukraine is so mature for the Russians that if Ukraine now leaves Russia’s sphere of interest, it will no longer return to the hem of Russia.”

According to Kari the West’s capacity for action is limited, not least because Ukraine is not a member of the EU or NATO. In any case, diplomatic means must be used, he says.

“If anyone uses force, let it be Ukraine.”

However, Kari calls for very determined action from the West. At the very least, it would be essential that any subsequent economic sanctions be directed directly at the assets of Russian leaders in Western Europe. Threatening with such sanctions could, he said, be very effective.

“Sanctions need to bite the kleptocratic leadership, their accounts need to be frozen. I haven’t dared to touch it yet. No Russian people should be rocked. We need to aim where the accounts and children of the leaders are. ”