The situation is starting to look like 2017. South Korean President Moon Jae-in said this on Sunday after the North Korean regime fired a missile for the seventh time this month. He was referring to Kim Jong-un’s 2017 tests of intercontinental missiles and nuclear payloads, after which then-US President Donald Trump threatened the North Korean leader “with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
The flight of the missile fired Sunday had features that worry experts in neighboring South Korea and Japan, and features that indicate some restraint.
To start with the latter, the rocket, perhaps a Hwasong-12 medium-range missile, traveled a steep but short trajectory as the crow flies. It reached an altitude of 2,000 kilometers and landed about 500 miles from the launch site in Jagang Province, well ahead of the Japanese economic zone. In 2017, ballistic missiles flew over Japan, which the country experienced as very threatening. Sunday’s launch suggests this was a large rocket, but not deployed too provocatively.
However, the concerns prevail. It was the first time since 2017 that the regime in Pyongyang launched another medium-range missile (roughly 1,000-5,500 km). Earlier this month, a report emerged that North Korea appears to have decided to no longer adhere to a 2018 self-imposed moratorium on the testing of nuclear and longer-range missiles. Analysts suspect that this decision was put into practice on Sunday.
That could be a prelude to resuming testing of missiles with an intercontinental range, as North Korea last did in November 2017 with the Hwasong-15. They can also do the United States to achieve.
Increasing the range and number of tests — this is the highest number of North Korean launches in one month since Kim Jong-un came to power in 2011 — is seen as a signal to Joe Biden, among other things. The US president has hardly dealt with North Korea; his foreign policy mainly revolved around the exit from Afghanistan, the rivalry with China and now the crisis over Ukraine.
Since Kim and Trump had a failed summit in Hanoi in 2019, diplomacy over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has been put on the back burner. Resuming talks is the only way to cut from the long list of international sanctions that are throttling the North Korean economy. Kim wants to get rid of the sanctions, but after rocket launches earlier this month, Biden has expanded the sanctions package.
At the same time, the tests could be intended for South Korea, where presidential elections are in more than a month. Kim may be out to intimidate Moon’s successor.
five-year plan
In addition, he may also have a more direct reason for the series launches. Last year, Kim announced a five-year plan with big ambitions for North Korean military capabilities, including hypersonic missiles and spy satellites. The missile tests can be part of this program. Kim would be seeking recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power, in order to possibly start talks about mutual arms control from that position. The idea behind this is that he feels constantly threatened by the outside world and wants to develop the widest possible arsenal of defenses.
Finally, the launches can also target the domestic audience. Kim Jong-un has several times last year explained that the population, burdened by the sanctions, is suffering extra hard from the pandemic. He may be trying to say: plenty of good food I can’t give you, but rockets to be proud of will.
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