On January 3, in Vienna, indirect talks between Iran and the United States resumed to save the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Talks do not keep pace with nuclear progress
The magazine “Foreign Policy” quoted an unnamed US official as saying that the negotiations had achieved “some progress”, but he considered that this was not enough to justify open talks without specific dates and deadlines.
He pointed out that the pace at which the talks are progressing does not keep pace with Iran’s nuclear progress, stressing that if the talks continue in the coming weeks at the current slow pace, Washington may have to reconsider the importance of the nuclear agreement completely, and take a decision on correcting the course.
In turn, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the Vienna negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file are “very slow”, considering that this threatens the possibility of reaching an agreement in a “realistic time frame”.
He explained that “the situation is dangerous because Iran has reached the penultimate stage” in terms of enriching uranium to 90% and obtaining nuclear capability.
temporary agreement
In statements to the Iranian news agency, the head of the parliament’s National Security Committee, Vahid Jalalzadeh, said that the goal of our negotiating team is a “permanent agreement”, but we did not reject the temporary agreement if there was no alternative.
He explained that the issue of the interim agreement was raised several times during the talks, and what worries us about it is the experience of America’s withdrawal 2018.
Jalalzadeh’s statements are considered a regression in the Iranian position, as the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Saeed Khatibzadeh, had confirmed that Iran does not want a temporary agreement and demands a comprehensive agreement and guarantees.
Israeli preparedness
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett considered that his country will not be bound by any nuclear agreement with Iran, stressing that it will continue to maintain freedom of action against its enemies if necessary.
He added, “Israel is not a party to the agreements. We will not be bound by what the agreements will stipulate if they are signed, and Israel will continue to maintain complete freedom of action anywhere and at any time without restrictions.”
Israel had called on world powers to maintain a credible military option against Iran while seeking to reach an agreement.
imminent agreement
Iranian analyst, Omid Shoukry, told Sky News Arabia that in the previous eight rounds of negotiations, Iran called for the lifting of all sanctions (maximum pressure policy, human rights, missiles and nuclear program, etc.) against Tehran, and when Ibrahim Raisi took power, Follow the same policy again.
Shoukry, senior adviser on foreign policy and energy security at the Center for “Gulf States Analytics” (based in Washington), added: “In the meantime, the United States gave China the green light to import more Iranian oil to slightly improve its economy, which Tehran considered a concession and this reinforced the positions of governments This encouraged the West to increase the rate of uranium enrichment, while at the same time showing its willingness to negotiate.
He pointed out that “a short-term and limited agreement is expected to be reached by early February, in which case some sanctions will be lifted, Iran will be suspended for further enrichment, the increase in the number of centrifuges, and the expansion of the role of the Atomic Energy Agency in inspecting Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
He stressed that it is unreasonable for Iran, which has spent tens of billions of dollars on its nuclear and missile programs, to give up its nuclear and missile programs completely. If an agreement is reached, Tehran may suspend some nuclear program activities for a short period to please the West, but given the role of nuclear weapons in deterrence and the importance of deterrence in the overall policy of the Iranian government, it is not expected that Iran will halt its nuclear program in the coming years.
He continued, “The United States will continue to conduct nuclear talks with Iran in the coming weeks without further sanctions, and will not use the tool of increasing sanctions as an alternative to diplomacy unless those talks fail.”
The original nuclear deal lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for strict restrictions on its nuclear activities, but former US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the agreement in 2018 and re-imposed tough sanctions on Tehran.
Iran later responded by violating many of the nuclear restrictions, and went ahead with its nuclear activities.
Iran refuses to meet directly with US officials, so the other parties to the agreement, namely Russia, China, France, Britain, Germany and the European Union, move between the two sides in separate meetings.
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