Managing the fall of Bashar Al Assad’s regime was not in the plans of the outgoing president of the United States, Joe Biden. The future of Syria has too many implications to be ignored by Donald Trump, the incoming president, who advocates isolationism and “America First.”
Until last week, the fronts of the country’s nearly 13-year civil war were virtually inactive. The war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza dominated American attention and diplomatic efforts around the world. And the trend of normalizing relations with Al Assad seemed aimed at prolonging his stay in power.
The established order was overthrown in a matter of days. Rebel forces broke into the country’s main cities and the Syrian army fell apart in their wake. Iran and Russia chose not to support the regime and the ousted Assad found refuge in Moscow, a popular destination for deposed tyrants.
According to Steven Heydemann, a non-resident researcher at the Center for Middle East Policy and author of the essay Authoritarianism in Syriathe events of the last week are “the most important reorganization of the region since 2003.” The author indicates that they open a gap between a historical alliance between Iran and Syria and reverse a constant advance of Iranian interests in the region since the Iraq war.
Just a generation ago, the United States would have seized any opportunity to dictate the postwar order in Syria. However, this week Joe Biden and his Administration officials were more cautious when informing journalists that the United States would collaborate with all actors, but only in a supportive capacity.
During a briefing, a senior White House official wanted to emphasize that “the future will be written by the Syrian people.” “Washington is not going to present a plan for the future of Syria. The Syrian people will draw it. The fall of Al Assad was decided by the Syrian people. But I think it’s very clear that the United States can lend a hand and we are more than willing to do so.”
The immediate efforts to stabilize Syria and ultimately transition to a new government come as Washington prepares for a historic change in leadership. In the coming months, a tug-of-war, full of nuances, will be necessary between all the actors. This type of diplomacy is not the United States’ forte, especially after a polarized and heated election in which a considerable portion of voters embraced Donald Trump’s infectious isolationist positioning.
A complex list of actors will try to influence the situation: Turkey and the Gulf countries, major regional powers such as Iran and Russia, whose influence should not be underestimated, a muscular Israel that has bombed Syrian military installations and has begun to take territory. in the south, and a constellation of armed groups ranging from US-backed Kurds to Islamist fighters, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the force that captured Aleppo and Damascus and remains appearing on the list of terrorist organizations of the United States.
“The situation on the ground doesn’t respond to America’s natural approach of good and bad, black and white, paint by the numbers, which side you’re on,” explains Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic Studies. and Washington Internationals.
“Diplomacy with many nuances will be necessary, which the United States instinctively does not like and would find it very difficult to execute in a context of presidential transition,” he says. “All parties have in mind a game 20 or 30 years from now. And it is very difficult for US administrations to think about a game in 20 or 30 years.”
In fact, the time horizon for current US policies will last little more than another month, until Trump takes office in January. As the Biden Administration loses influence and draws to a close in its final days, Trump has already made it clear that he does not want to get bogged down in Syria.
This weekend, during his trip to Paris, Trump wrote the following message, in all caps for emphasis, on his social media platform Truth Social: “Syria is a disaster, but it is not our friend, AND THE UNITED STATES IS NOT IT SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH HER. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT DEVELOP. LET’S NOT GET INVOLVED.”
In a turning point for the region, some observers have expressed concern that the United States will take a non-interventionist approach. In his opinion, this positioning could leave the country open to a return to civil war or a resurgence of Iran, which sees Damascus as an axis of its power projection throughout the region. Qutaiba Idlbi, senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, says: “We have a golden opportunity to reconfigure the Middle East, because Iran has lost its strategic base in the region, so its ability to disorder it has been significantly reduced.”
However, a conflict in Syria could easily escalate as myriad powers and regional groups seek to capitalize on Assad’s sudden fall.
In fact, Israel has already sent tanks and troops to the Golan Heights, occupying military posts across the border for the first time since 1974. And in the north, the Turkish army has fired on the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. United and, according to this group, at least 20 people have died.
On Tuesday, Gen. Erik Kurilla, the highest-ranking U.S. military officer in the Middle East, visited the Syrian Democratic Forces and U.S. soldiers to “assess first-hand force protection measures, the rapidly evolving situation and ongoing efforts to prevent the Islamic State (IS) from taking advantage of the current situation.”
Although Russia has lost a key ally with the fall of Al Assad, it will continue to try to preserve its air base and naval base in Syria, which allow it to project its power around the world. Syria also plays a crucial role in Iran’s strategy for the region. And although Tehran has turned its back on Assad, observers believe this is not yet the final act.
“I am concerned that if the United States does not commit to ensuring stability in Syria, it may be relatively easy for Iran to re-emerge as a major player in the region,” Idlbi notes.
Trump had previously promised to withdraw all 900 US troops from northern Syria, where they support Kurdish forces fighting the Islamic State. The new government will also be filled with pro-Israel and anti-Iran hawks who may see the future of Syria as key to their agenda. And for a future president who prides himself on making deals, the truth is that the lure of negotiations may prove too difficult to resist.
“The Trump Administration has boasted of not wanting to intervene, but the reality is that many countries involved on which the United States depends for many things have a great interest in how the situation is resolved,” says Alterman. “So [la Administración Trump]… will not be able to remain on the sidelines without serious consequences … There are too many players we care about, both from a positive and negative point of view, to simply let the chips fall on the board without having tried to influence.
Translation by Emma Reverter
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