US President Joe Biden and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, may announce this Tuesday night a ceasefire to end the fighting between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, which will come into force at some point in the year. Wednesday.
The Biden administration, wary of a regional escalation that could attract Hezbollah’s main ally, Iran, has been seeking a truce for months. The conflict began 13 months ago, when the powerful Lebanese militia began firing rockets and projectiles into Israel a day after the Palestinian group Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 and began the Israeli genocide in Gaza.
Israel’s security cabinet is scheduled to meet Tuesday afternoon to vote on the proposal, which is expected to be approved despite opposition from Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right allies.
Of course, while this is happening, Israel continues to launch large-scale airstrikes on Beirut.
Do we know the details of the agreement?
The agreement follows the contours of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 36-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 but was never fully implemented.
The Israeli army is expected to completely withdraw from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah would withdraw its heavy weapons north of the Litani River, about 25 km north of the border. During a 60-day transition phase, the Lebanese Army would deploy to the buffer zone alongside the current UN peacekeeping force. Old border disputes will be discussed after the 60-day withdrawal period.
The process will be controlled by a US-led oversight mechanism that would act as an arbiter of violations. A letter of guarantee that is not formally part of the agreement reportedly guarantees American support for Israeli freedom of action if Hezbollah attacks Israel again or moves its forces or weapons south of the Litani.
Is it likely to work?
Israel appears to have come to the table following warnings from Washington that if a ceasefire was not agreed, the US would not veto a UN Security Council resolution imposing a ceasefire under worse conditions for Israel.
On Monday, the vice president of the Lebanese Parliament, Elias Bou Saab, declared that “there are no serious obstacles” to the implementation of the truce, and the New York Times reported this week that the deal has the approval of Hezbollah’s backers in Iran. Tehran wants to avoid further degradation of its main deterrent force against Israel.
Israel may benefit from the opportunity to rest its ground forces and reservists, and to repair and replenish ammunition and inventory. It also helps that the United States, its main ally, participates directly in mediation related to violations of the agreement.
What is the situation on the ground?
In recent days, intense fighting has been taking place as both sides try to consolidate their gains.
Israel has carried out heavy airstrikes on the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and throughout the south of the country this week.
Hezbollah, for its part, fired more than 200 rockets at Israel on Sunday, one of the most intense attacks since the war began.
The conflict escalated at the end of September, when hundreds of you search of Hezbollah exploded in an Israeli attack. Israel, likewise, killed a large part of Hezbollah’s leadership in air strikes in those days and launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
Some 3,700 people have died in the fighting in Lebanon and 126 in Israel. Hundreds of thousands of people on both sides of the blue line have been forced to leave their homes.
And a ceasefire in the Gaza war?
For Israelis, it is important that Hezbollah has given up its demand that the ceasefire in Lebanon be conditional on an end to the fighting in Gaza.
Since a truce in Gaza failed in November 2023, ceasefire negotiations have repeatedly run aground. Qatar, one of the main mediators between Israel and Hamas, announced earlier this month that it was abandoning its role until both sides showed “will and seriousness” in the talks.
The resettlement or permanent reoccupation of Gaza is not an open policy of Israel, but senior defense officials recently told the Haaretz newspaper that the Government intended to annex large areas of the territory instead of negotiating an end to the war.
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