Finally, SOCIMIs will continue to enjoy their special tax regime that allows them to pay Corporate Income Tax at 1% in Spain. After this situation, analysts, instead of abandoning their confidence in national firms, have instead increased it. Thus, although it continues to be a hold on the stock market, Colonial earns its best recommendation since January.
The company directed by Pere Viñolas is ranked as the 22nd best recommendation on the Ibex 35, after having risen up to six positions in a single week, leaving the lower part of The Ibex League (the combined elEconomista.es which is prepared with the averages of the recommendations of Bloomberg and FactSet). This is its best position in the tool since October 2023when he occupied step 21.
The JB Capital Markets team has been the last to raise its recommendation to buy and, with it, 55% of analysts advise taking positions in the real estate, compared to the hold they previously recommended.
The optimism with Colonial is not only perceived in this poster for its actions. In recent weeks, the price target for its securities has also improved substantially. Currently, the analyst consensus collected by FactSet values the SOCIMI on the stock market at 7 euros per share, compared to 6.95 euros at the end of October. This valuation is also the highest since the end of June. The last time the Catalan company was listed at 7 euros was in October 2022. Up to that level, the value has an upside potential of 27%.
The announcement of the possible suspension of this special regime led investors to undo positions in the company, which lost 5% in a single session. This was the second biggest drop in a day in 2024. “It is worth remembering that Colonial made a preliminary estimate of a negative impact at EPS level of between -1% and -2% in the case of a total elimination of the special tax regime for SOCIMIs,” they recall from Renta 4.
Finally, the company will continue to benefit from this legislation and, in its latest results, raised its EPS outlook for 2024 from 0-3-0.32 euros per share to 0.32-0.35 euros.
Since that last November 12, the company has managed to rebound almost 7% and erase this scare. In the year, however, Colonial continues to leave more than 15% of its value in the Spanish stock market. “Lto address attributed this increase to the improvement in rental income and the reduction of financial expenses,” explained Barclays.
These falls, however, have left its stock trading with un 43% discount compared to the net value of your assets (NAV). This figure (which is reviewed every six months) was established by the company in the latest semi-annual results at 9.66 euros per share, which represented a new contraction, compared to the 10 euros they set at the end of the 2023 financial year and compared to to 10.88 euros from the same period of the previous year.
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