Matilde Mas (PhD in Economic Sciences and Director of International Projects at the Valencian Institute of Economic Research, Ivie) believes that the reconstruction of Valencia must take a train with the money that will come from Spain and Europe: encourage that, instead of rebuilding companies and houses in the same flood zones they were in, be rebuilt in a safe place. “It’s a drawer.” He sees it as essential that the money “arrives now” for those affected. And that the devastated companies of l’Horta Sud, almost all SMEs or micro-SMEs, take the opportunity to digitalize, also with European funds: “It is not about building airplanes in that area now, but rather about building the same windows as before, but in a different way. way and in a place that will not flood next time.”
In the face of unprecedented destruction, how should we rebuild?
The first requirement for construction is that it never happens again. From now on we must know how to proceed and react to a risk of catastrophe. The news of what we are learning about what was done and what was not done is enough to make one cry and become indignant.
If you copy, you earn a lot, for example from Japan, the Netherlands or the US. There they deal with emergencies with automatic processes, which are tested and that everyone understands. And here we have received a little message that was not understood, while in Japan the alerts are projected on all pedestrian crossings. In 15 minutes, with good warning, all the people who died at home or in the garage – most of them, along with those who died in the car on the way – go up one or two floors and are saved.
And how do we do economic reconstruction? Many affected people in the area complain that the money has not arrived yet.
In the short term, we must support people with material things and provide them with housing. It is also essential, and has been done more or less, to put the production system back to work, recovering the mobility of workers and the transportation of goods. It was also important for the State to say “we are here, don’t worry” by announcing financial aid. That is very good to stop the blow, but as long as they are struck quickly. You have to do it now. There are people who have had to move to live with acquaintances and this cannot last. We must now bring that money to families and give them security. Furthermore, if there is no speed, there are companies that will have to close.
How should the money that is coming from Spain and Europe be invested so that it can be used to the maximum?
To begin with, for years building in river beds has been authorized, and that cannot be done. We must evacuate the part of the towns that is at risk, because we know it will happen again, although we do not know when. The context now is favorable because there is awareness. You can’t take away people’s property, but you can create industrial or residential land and encourage the transfer of houses and businesses. City councils are very reluctant to expand the land, perhaps because the citizens themselves are also reluctant to change their environment, but they have to do it. Furthermore, now there is an additional incentive, and that is that there is a serious housing problem.
And in companies?
European funds should be used and an attempt should be made to change the productive specialization of these towns, which in general have low productivity and very small companies. You can create knowledge poles. You can set up a business center with public money and stimulate the change towards a new mode of production. It is not suddenly making airplanes, it is making the aluminum windows that you used to make with more advanced technology, digitizing your company, and there are also European funds for that. That they start differently in a non-flooded site. Missing this opportunity is a mistake. And rebuilding the factory or the house on the site where it was, in a flood-prone area, is a mistake.
Another problem that has become evident after the flood is the mobility crisis when 130,000 cars disappear…
These highly populated areas must have better public transportation in the future, because here the dependency on the car is very high, although it is also a matter of culture. The reduction of the vehicle fleet is important for many reasons, but this requires a response with public transport, or with bicycles as in the Netherlands, which is also very prone to flooding. We have another opportunity here. It would also be important to promote teleworking, because after the pandemic many companies have retreated and returned to in-person work. Where it is possible, of course, which is not the case with commerce. It can solve many mobility problems if you have trained workers.
What needs to be done in the long term?
A review of infrastructure and public works to avoid flooding – channels, ravines – but this will take time. To do this, we must anticipate a struggle that is taking place and will take place on this issue, the one between environmentalists and developers (promoters, builders). That is a complicated balance, but sensible agreements must be reached.
At ground zero there is distrust with the aid that will finally arrive, if there is corruption, it will fall by the wayside… How can it be avoided?
The law simply has to be applied. It’s all invented. Distrust is normal because we have not started by giving them the best example. This has started with a political confrontation and without help arriving. It is also important that all the promises that are being made are fulfilled, even if it is not in the short term. But don’t let them remain in the air. And I don’t mean that someone is going to keep the money. Promises can be broken due to incompetence or because priorities change. If you continue to leave this doubt and do not clearly demonstrate that you are going to do what you say, the damage to the credibility of the institutions will be irreversible. It is obscene, in the English sense of the word, that they are arguing and the streets have to be cleaned, it is a ruinous tacticism.
Would it help if there was more transparency in the distribution of money or in emergency awards?
The first transparency system is the eyes, seeing how your friends and acquaintances are doing and whether or not they have received help. And then the accessibility of the data, Open Data, is very important. Here at the Ivie we are following European funds to know what they are being spent on, not out of mistrust, but to know if it is going to innovation. For me, transparency means that you have access to what the money is being spent on, not as large items, but at a micro level. But sometimes institutions protect themselves so that people don’t look at them so much. Access should be given as long as it is justified and protecting confidentiality if applicable.
What impact is this tragedy going to have for the province of Valencia in terms of consumption, housing or employment?
The housing problem has worsened, because now more people are looking for a home, those who had ground floors and cannot return at the moment. In economic terms, the latest study by the Bank of Spain estimates that the impact will be 0.2% on the national GDP. It is very little because it has happened in a very small part of a province whose growth is based on work and not on innovation, so it is not relevant in the aggregate effect for Spain, which is also experiencing a sweet moment and where all the economic forecasts They are good. The drama does not have repercussions outside, it is limited to specific people, in an area with many small companies with a low level of productivity.
The Mazón Government has opted for a lieutenant general to lead the reconstruction. Will the military logistical and organizational method contribute anything to the reconstruction of the area?
Not necessarily. I find it very difficult to manage without doing politics, as the new vice president has said. Occupying a political position, are you not going to listen to the politician? I don’t think it’s the most appropriate profile, really. Public administration is a fairly complex thing, it is not easy, and I imagine that he will say what needs to be done and the officials who do know the system will come and tell him that you cannot do things the way you want. I get the impression that it is going to be inoperative and a source of conflict between two very different worlds.
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